DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...95 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW TUE...17 AT 5 MILES EAST OF DAVIS, WV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...JUNEAU, AK 1.44 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough on the West Coast and another in central Canada. The Canadian trough continues quickly eastward over the next day or so while the western trough will split into two. One piece will move northeast into Canada over the weekend and then eastward early next week.

A smaller, secondary piece will continue eastward through the U.S. early next week. Toward the end of next week, a new trough will build over Canada while another moves into the West Coast. That should pump up an eastern ridge for later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models made a brief change to split the western trough this weekend, but both did so. They are largely in agreement though the GFS is colder overall. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will develop on the end of a cold front across the Plains this weekend and move eastward early next week with some scattered showers. A cold front will likely move across at least northern areas later next week.

Temperatures will be rather warm ahead of the second feature, but we could see temperatures dropping behind the second system. Models are uncertain about that. Bigger storms are likely for the following week as the pattern looks to become much more active.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Warm and dry weather this week has allowed for good fieldwork conditions, which continues through Thursday. A system will move into the region on Friday and bring some showers, strong winds, and a chance for some snow on the backside of the system across Montana into Saturday. Showers may continue across the south into early next week as another system goes by to the south. This should only be a brief disruption to the overall good fieldwork weather for the rest of the month.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A few spotty showers have occurred around Kansas this week, but the overall warm and dry weather has been favorable for fieldwork. A system will move into the Northern Plains on Friday and its cold front will move into the region and stall, which may produce some areas of showers over the weekend and into early next week.

Despite the disruption, the forecast should favor more fieldwork. Drought remains a problem in the region, even after the recent bouts of heavy precipitation, but soil moisture is still largely favorable for winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Warm and dry weather continues to promote fieldwork across the region. There are still some drier areas out there where winter wheat is typically planted, which could be somewhat of a concern. A front will move into western areas this weekend where some showers may occur. A system developing along that front may bring showers through the region early next week, but coverage and amounts look spotty as fieldwork should continue to progress quickly

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to continue. Water levels on the Mississippi River are forecast to continue falling, and could be a concern in early November if the dryness continues as forecast.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Recent showers in central Brazil have been enough to encourage more planting and be in relative fair condition, but have been below normal in coverage and amounts. Southern areas have had some time to dry out a bit, which is helping some areas that have been too wet to recover.

However, another system will move through southern areas on Wednesday, with potential for another system over the weekend. Rain there could be heavy again and include some severe weather. Meanwhile, showers in central Brazil have been spotty this week. They may increase this weekend if the systems can push far enough northward, but it is a little concerning that rainfall has been falling at a below normal pace and intensity so far this season.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be cold in Argentina, which has been a concern for quite some time, causing slow growth for wheat and uneven germination for early corn. Despite the cold weather, producers are generally planting at a normal pace for mid-October. Scattered showers this week should help to maintain soil moisture without being too heavy, but cold air is forecast to be in place for the next couple of weeks, creating some unfavorable conditions in some areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system will push eastward this week with more active weather in the forecast behind it into early next week. That should mean more frequent precipitation in some areas, though Spain may struggle to see much precipitation. Dryness is still an issue across much of the continent as producers are counting on some good precipitation over the next couple of months for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Spotty showers continue for the next few days, but overall drier conditions are forecast into next week. Western areas like Ukraine have had some good rainfall lately while western Russia has not, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers continue in Queensland as a rare wet weather pattern has gripped this areas this week. A front will push through southern and eastern areas this weekend into early next week. That should bring some meaningful rainfall, but conditions are forecast to dry out behind the front next week. Precipitation has been below-normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce good yields in a lot of areas. Satellite images over the country show overall fair crop health as wheat and canola continue to fill.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A large system brought widespread moderate to heavy rain across central and northeastern China over the weekend, disrupting the ongoing corn and soybean harvest. However, some areas in the south-central also picked up some rain, which is beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment. Typhoon Champi is forecast to hit Taiwan before moving into central China this weekend. That may be enough to slow it down and significantly diminish its strength. If the forecast remains on track, only small areas near the central China coast would be affected by heavy rain while most of the inland areas would avoid damage. Overall, conditions are fair for corn and soybean harvest as well as winter wheat and canola establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast

West: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers north Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

East: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Spotty showers around Kansas. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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