DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...93 AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR OGILBY, CA

LOW MON...17 AT NEW MEADOWS, ID, STANLEY, ID, AND 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...ANCHORAGE, AK 0.90 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough on the West Coast and another in the Canadian Prairies. The Prairies trough will move eastward this week while it will take until the weekend before the Western trough moves northeast into Canada and then eastward early next week. However, another trough will take its place in the West as the ridge stays firm. It may take until later next week or even later for some of that energy to finally move eastward.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though they treat the second western trough different next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through Canada this weekend, bringing some cooler air to the far north for a brief time, but overall temperatures should remain near to above normal east of the Rockies. The front to the system could produce some showers in the Plains going into early next week, but drier weather is more likely until the western trough can move eastward later next week, weekend, or possibly even later into early November.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Continued warm and dry weather will allow for good fieldwork conditions for the next several days. A system will move into the region on Friday and bring scattered showers, strong winds, and a non-zero chance for some snow on the backside of the system into Saturday. More likely than not any snow will fall north of the border. Drier weather will likely follow behind the system for next week after a brief disruption. This should help producers accelerate their progress on fall fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Though a few spotty showers may be possible around Kansas, it should continue to remain largely warm and dry for the rest of the week. A system will move into the Northern Plains on Friday and its cold front will move into the region and stall, which may produce some areas of showers over the weekend and maybe into early next week. Otherwise, drier weather should favor more fieldwork. Drought remains a problem in the region, even after the recent bouts of heavy precipitation, but soil moisture is still largely favorable for winter wheat establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Drier weather this week should help soils to drain and producers to continue to get back to accelerating their fieldwork progress. There are still some drier areas out there where winter wheat is typically planted, which could be somewhat of a concern with all the warm and dry weather this week. A front will move into western areas this weekend where some showers may occur into early next week, but coverage and amounts look spotty as fieldwork should continue to progress quickly.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dryness and drought continue to be issues across much of the region, but are allowing fieldwork to continue. If not for some heavier rain farther north, water levels on the Mississippi River would be concerning. Even still, water levels are forecast to fall this week, and could be a concern if the weather pattern does not favor the Midwest or Delta as is currently forecast for the next couple of weeks.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Scattered showers became isolated over central Brazil this weekend. Recent showers have been enough to encourage more planting and be in relative fair condition, but have been below normal in coverage and amounts. Southern areas have had some time to dry out a bit, which is helping some areas that have been too wet to recover. However, another system will move through southern areas on Wednesday, with potential for another system over the weekend. Rain there could be heavy again and include some severe weather.

Meanwhile, showers in central Brazil are forecast to be spotty this week. They may increase this weekend if the systems can push far enough northward, but it is a little concerning that rainfall has been falling at a below normal pace and intensity so far this season.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): It continues to be cold this week. Some areas in the south may have seen a frost over the weekend, but would have been spotty.

Despite the cold weather, producers are generally planting at a normal pace for mid-October. Scattered showers this week should help to maintain soil moisture without being too heavy, but cold air is forecast to be in place for the next couple of weeks, creating some unfavorable conditions in some areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system will push eastward this week with more active weather in the forecast behind it into early next week. That should mean more frequent precipitation in some areas, though Spain may struggle to see much precipitation. Dryness is still an issue across much of the continent as producers are counting on some good precipitation over the next couple of months for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system stalled over Ukraine produced showers over the weekend, but very little has fallen in western Russia lately, where conditions are much less favorable for winter wheat establishment. Showers continue to be spottier this week, but may include some of those Russian areas that need it.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers fell in Queensland over the weekend and continue there for much of the week, which is favorable, but showers will be much more spotty or non-existent elsewhere this week.

Precipitation has been below-normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce somewhat decent yields. Satellite images from the country show overall fair crop health.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A large system brought widespread moderate to heavy rain across central and northeastern China over the weekend, disrupting the ongoing corn and soybean harvest. However, some areas in the south-central also picked up some rain, which is beneficial for winter wheat and canola establishment. However, the country is bracing for the potential of Typhoon Champi that will approaching late this week or weekend. If the typhoon hits Taiwan first, damage to mainland China will be more limited, but heavy rain and flooding could still occur.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

East: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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