DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...8 AT 20 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FRENCHGLEN, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...TOPEKA, KS 1.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. Another disturbance is moving into western Canada and will help to push the trough eastward for the rest of the week. A large ridge will develop behind the troughs in the West and push eastward this weekend. Another trough will move into the West early next week to take the place of the ridge, which would likely move eastward late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Temperatures will rise again next week. We will likely see a system move into the Plains near the end of next week with scattered showers, with it then moving eastward over the weekend. Milder air will likely follow behind the system, though models have increased the temperature forecast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move into the Central Plains on Wednesday and will send some rain northward into the region going into Thursday. Though it is colder this week, warmer air will move back in this weekend. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will occur, but rain is forecast to be light. The recent precipitation should continue to help reduce drought across the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system will move into the region on Wednesday, pulling in some tropical moisture with it, which may result in some areas of heavy rain through Thursday. Though the rain would disrupt the harvest that has already dealt with disruptions and damage, any rain will be ultimately beneficial for winter wheat and other fall forages as well as reducing drought.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through the region through Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some colder air will follow behind the system for a couple of days, but will pop right back up going into early next week. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will be possible, but unlikely to be long outside of Missouri, which has the best chances for heavy amounts.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought has been growing for some time now, but rainfall farther north has helped to keep the water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Even a front going through on Friday is forecast to be largely dry. Next week is forecast to be largely dry as well.

The drought will continue to grow until significant rain falls in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Heavy rain is shifting from southern Brazil to central Brazil, allowing southern areas a chance to dry out a little bit. That would be favorable for both areas as it has been too wet in the south and too dry in the north. Models are suggesting the flip in the precipitation pattern to continue somewhat next week as well, continuing to improve soil moisture for central and northern areas that haven't seen much so far in October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Areas of light showers are expected throughout the week, which is helping to increase soil moisture somewhat. However, colder air has kept soil temperatures from rising very much this spring, which continue through next week. Southern areas may be slow to plant corn because of the cold, but increasing soil moisture should be overall favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): The weather pattern is complicated through next week with a system meandering about the continent Friday through next week. While some areas of favorable rain will occur, some areas will not. Overall though, western areas need more rain for winter crop planting and establishment, as do those in the southeast. The prospects for a lot of rainfall are fairly low, but not zero through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system stalling in Ukraine will continue to produce showers there through the weekend, but will be harder to find rain in western Russia. That is creating some mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment with somewhat favorable conditions west and poor conditions east.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will continue to produce showers in the northeastern wheat belt for the rest of the week, otherwise it should remain fairly dry in a lot of areas, even with a couple of systems moving through. Precipitation has been below-normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce somewhat decent yields. Satellite images from the country show overall fair crop health.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A larger system is forecast for Friday through the weekend with much more widespread coverage of rain that may cause disruption to the ongoing corn and soybean harvest in central and northeast China. However, this should help out winter wheat and canola areas to get some more moisture for establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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