DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. The trough will slowly move eastward for the rest of the week, getting some help from another trough moving through Canada late in the week. A large ridge will develop behind the troughs in the West and push eastward this weekend. Another trough should move into the West early next week to take the place of the ridge, which would likely move eastward mid-late next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS is probably bringing in too much cold air into the East this weekend. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Some cooler air will move through the U.S. this weekend, but warmer air will quickly replace it by early next week. We will likely see a system move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers, with it then moving eastward later next week. Milder air will likely follow behind the system.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...12 AT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...PROVIDENCE, RI 1.28 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. The trough will slowly move eastward for the rest of the week, getting some help from another trough moving through Canada late in the week. A large ridge will develop behind the troughs in the West and push eastward this weekend. Another trough should move into the West early next week to take the place of the ridge, which would likely move eastward mid-late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS is probably bringing in too much cold air into the East this weekend. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Some cooler air will move through the U.S. this weekend, but warmer air will quickly replace it by early next week. We will likely see a system move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers, with it then moving eastward later next week. Milder air will likely follow behind the system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved east on Monday after bringing through widespread showers and snow in Montana. Another system will move into the Central Plains on Wednesday and will send some rain northward into the region as well. Though it is cold this week, warmer air will move back in this weekend. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will occur, but areas of heavy rain should be limited. The precipitation should continue to help reduce drought across the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Hot and dry weather over the weekend continued to favor fieldwork across the region. A system will move into the region on Wednesday, pulling in some tropical moisture ahead of it, which may result in some areas of heavy rain through Thursday. Though the rain would disrupt the harvest that has already dealt with disruptions and damage, any rain will be ultimately beneficial for winter wheat and other fall forages as well as reducing drought.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system is moving across the north on Tuesday and another system will move through Wednesday through Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some colder air will follow behind the system for the weekend, but will pop right back up going into early next week. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will be possible, but unlikely to be long outside of Missouri, which has better chances for heavy amounts.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought has been growing for some time now, but rainfall farther north has helped to keep the water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Even a front going through on Friday is forecast to be largely dry. Showers may move through next week, but the drought will continue to grow until significant rain falls in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Heavy rain is shifting from southern Brazil to central Brazil this week, while southern areas get a chance to dry out a little bit. That would be favorable for both areas as it has been too wet in the south and too dry in the north. Models are suggesting the flip in the precipitation pattern to continue somewhat next week as well, continuing to improve soil moisture for central and northern areas that haven't seen much so far in October.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Areas of light showers are expected throughout the week, which is helping to increase soil moisture somewhat. However, colder air has kept soil temperatures from rising very much this spring, which continue through next week. Southern areas may be slow to plant corn because of the cold, but increasing soil moisture should be overall favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through much of the continent over the weekend except in Spain, which has been somewhat dry for a while now this fall. The weather pattern is complicated this week with systems favoring northern areas, but may spread showers southward at times as well. Overall though, western areas need more rain for winter crop planting and establishment, as do those in the southeast. The prospects for a lot of rainfall are fairly low, but not zero over the next two weeks.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A few showers went through Ukraine over the weekend, but western Russia remained dry. A system stalling in Ukraine should produce showers there throughout the week, but will be harder to find in western Russia. That is creating some mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment with somewhat favorable conditions west and poor conditions east.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought a few showers to eastern areas over the weekend and Monday. Part of that system may continue showers in the northeastern wheat belt for the rest of the week, otherwise it should remain fairly dry in a lot of areas, even with a couple of systems moving through. Precipitation has been below-normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce somewhat decent yields. Satellite images from the country show overall fair crop health.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was dry over the weekend, favoring corn and soybean harvest in central and northeast China. A system moved through with some showers on Monday, but did not affect very many areas.

A larger system is forecast for Friday through the weekend with much more widespread coverage that may cause more disruption. However, this should help out winter wheat and canola areas to get some more moisture for establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday night-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures above normal through Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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