DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...98 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...11 AT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...ROANOKE, VA 3.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough in the West. The trough is sending the remnants of Hurricane Rachel across the northern tier of the U.S. early this week, but will slowly move eastward for the rest of the week, getting some help from another trough moving through Canada late in the week. A large ridge will develop behind the troughs in the West and push eastward this weekend. Another trough should move into the West early next week to take the place of the ridge, which would likely move eastward mid-late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS is probably bringing in too much cold air into the East this weekend. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A storm system will move through eastern portions of the country late this week, bringing in some cooler air for a couple of days, but warmer air will quickly replace it next week. We will likely see a system move into the Plains in the middle of next week with scattered showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through this weekend and brought in some colder air. The remnants of Hurricane Rachel moved in over the cold, which resulted in some accumulating snow in Montana and cold rain across North Dakota. The system will move east on Monday. Another system will move into the Central Plains on Wednesday and will send some rain northward into the region as well. Though it is cold this week, warmer air will move back in this weekend. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will occur, but areas of heavy rain should be limited. The precipitation should continue to help reduce drought across the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Hot and dry weather over the weekend continued to favor fieldwork across the region. A system will move into the region on Wednesday, pulling in some tropical moisture ahead of it, which may result in some areas of heavy rain Tuesday through Thursday. Though the rain would disrupt the harvest that has already dealt with disruptions and damage, any rain will be ultimately beneficial for winter wheat and other fall forages as well as reducing drought.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): The remnants to Hurricane Isaias brought some showers north of the Ohio River this weekend, but most areas stayed warm and dry, with some record highs in the west. The remnants to Hurricane Rachel will move across the north for Monday and Tuesday and another system will move through Wednesday through Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some colder air will follow behind the system for the weekend, but will pop right back up going into early next week. Some disruption to the ongoing harvest will be possible, but unlikely to be long.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Hurricane Isaias made landfall well to the east on Friday night and the rain shield from the remnant low largely missed the region this weekend, keeping the area dry. Drought has been growing for some time now, but rainfall farther north has helped to keep the water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Even a front going through later this week is now forecast to be largely dry. Showers may move through next week, but the drought will continue to grow until significant rain falls in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): More heavy rain moved through southern Brazil this weekend while central Brazil only saw spotty showers. Forecasts are calling for the rainfall to increase in central Brazil later this week, while southern areas get a chance to dry out a little bit. That would be favorable for both areas as it has been too wet in the south and too dry in the north.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers moved through over the weekend, and were fairly light overall. Areas of light showers are expected throughout the week, which is helping to increase soil moisture somewhat. However, colder air has kept soil temperatures from rising very much this spring, which should continue this week as well. Southern areas may be slow to plant corn because of the cold, but increasing soil moisture should be overall favorable.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through much of the continent over the weekend except in Spain, which has been somewhat dry for a while now this fall. The weather pattern is complicated this week with systems favoring northern areas, but may spread showers southward at times as well. Overall though, western areas need more rain for winter crop planting and establishment, as do those in the southeast. The prospects for a lot of rainfall are fairly low, but not zero over the next two weeks.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A few showers went through Ukraine over the weekend, but western Russia remained dry. A system stalling in Ukraine should produce showers there this week, but will be harder to find in western Russia. That is creating some mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment with somewhat favorable conditions west and poor conditions east.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought a few showers to eastern areas over the weekend, which continues on Monday. Part of that system may continue showers in the northeastern wheat belt, otherwise it should remain fairly dry in a lot of areas this week, even with a couple of systems moving through. Precipitation has been below normal for a lot of the spring, but may have come at just the right time to produce somewhat decent yields. Satellite images from the country show overall fair crop health.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was dry over the weekend, favoring corn and soybean harvest in central and northeast China. A system will move through with some showers early this week, but will favor areas with more winter wheat and canola acreage, which will happily take some rain. A larger system is forecast for later this week and weekend, but coverage of rain is uncertain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday night-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

East: Isolated showers north Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday, south Friday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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