USDA Reports Summary
USDA Raises Corn Yield 2.7 BPA to 181.2 BPA
This article was originally published at 11:07 a.m. CDT on Friday, Oct. 9. It was last updated with additional information at 11:31 a.m. CDT on Friday, Oct. 9.
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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA on Friday went against pre-report expectations and bumped up the corn yield by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bpa, raising production estimates and increasing ending stocks by 282 million bushels as well.
Corn production was projected at 16.03 billion bushels, while ending stocks were raised to 1.849 billion bushels, both of which were at the high end of analysts' projections.
USDA released its October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports on Friday.
Friday's U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and slightly bearish for wheat, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery. World ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and neutral for wheat, he said.
Stay tuned throughout the morning and refresh this page often. We will be sending a series of updates with the important highlights from Friday's reports, including commentary from our analysts.
You can also view the full reports here:
-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
CORN
USDA puts the corn yield was 181.2 bushels per acre. Production was raised from 15.8 billion bushels (bb) to 16.03 bb as a result.
For comparison, DTN's proprietary yield model projected the national average corn yield at 179.5 bpa.
Planted acres for the 2026-27 corn crop were 96.8 million acres (ma). Harvested acres were 88.5 ma.
Beginning stocks for the 2026-27 crop came in at 2.095 bb following the increase in the Quarterly Grain Stocks report for year-end carryover from the 2025-26 crop. That was up from 1.922 bb.
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On the demand side, 2026-27 total feed and residual use was 6 bb, up 50 million bushels (mb) from last month. Ethanol use is projected at 5.65 bb, up 50 mb as well. Total domestic use is forecast at 13.005 bb, up 100 mb from last month.
Corn exports for the 2026-27 crop are projected at 3.3 bb, up 25 mb from last month.
Total usage comes in at 16.305 bb, up from 16.18 bb last month.
Ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop were raised to 1.849 bb, up from 1.567 bb in September.
The farmgate price for the 2026-27 crop is projected at $4.70 a bushel, down 10 cents from September.
Globally, USDA projects beginning stocks for the 2026-27 corn crop at 307.16 million metric tons (mmt), up from 301.38 mmt. Projected global ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop were raised to 280.44 mmt, up from 272.10 mmt. In the European Union, USDA pegged production at 48 mmt, down from 50.6 mmt last month, with imports at 23.5 mmt. Ukraine's production was projected at 31.8 mmt with exports at 22 mmt, the same as last month.
Brazil's production for the 2025-26 crop was forecast at 141 mmt, but exports were lowered by 2 mmt to 38 mmt. Argentina's production was projected at 64 mmt, up 1 mmt from last month, with exports at 45 mmt. Ukraine's production was 30.9 mmt, with exports at 22.24 mmt.
SOYBEANS
For the 2026-27 marketing year, USDA increased the U.S. soybean crop forecasts from last month's report.
USDA estimates farmers will grow 4.562 bb of soybeans, using a trendline yield estimate of 53.1 bpa, planted acres at 86.9 million acres, with harvest at 85.9 million acres.
Domestic ending stocks rose to 315 million bushels. USDA sees total supplies up slightly at 4.902 bb. Crush demand remained unchanged at 2.78 bb, while exports are forecast to be 10 mb higher than in June at 1.695 mb. Seed use is forecast at 73 mb and residual at 39 mb. USDA's national average farmgate price estimate remains unchanged at $12 per bushel.
DTN's updated model estimates the national soybean average yield at 52.2 bpa.
For the old crop, 2025-26 marketing year, domestic ending stocks fell to 315 mb. Exports were pegged lower at 1.515 bb. USDA held the national average farmgate price at $10.50 per bushel.
Globally, new-crop ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year were forecast at 124.28 mmt, up slightly from last month. USDA anticipates unchanged Brazilian production at 186 mmt of soybeans, and Argentina at 50 mmt.
Global old-crop ending stocks for 2025-26 were estimated at 124.93 mmt, down from last month.
USDA left Brazil's production unchanged at 180.5 mmt, with exports at 114.46 mmt. Argentina's production was listed at 49.3 mmt.
WHEAT
USDA pegged U.S. wheat production at 1.534 billion bushels, up slightly from September's Small Grains report estimate of 1.531 bb.
USDA estimates ending stocks at 740 million bushels in October, up from September's estimate of 717 mb.
Wheat exports were pegged at 750 mb, which is down from 775 mb in September, while USDA estimates the farmgate price at $6.30 per bushel, also down from $6.40 last month. Total use was cut by 15 million bushels.
Wheat world ending stocks were estimated at 276.04 million metric tons, down from 276.29 mmt in September.
USDA estimates global wheat production at 822.39 mmt, a cut from 822.43 mmt last month.
Wheat exports for Russia were pegged at 40.0 mmt, down from 43.0 mmt in September. Ukrainian exports were estimated at 12.5 mmt, unchanged from last month.
Wheat production in Russia was pegged at 88.0 mmt and European Union production at 133.00 mmt.
Wheat production in Argentina was estimated at 21.5 mmt, Australia's production was estimated at 31.0 mmt, and production in Canada is pegged at 36.5 mmt.
LIVESTOCK
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of 2026, said DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart.
"Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 75 million pounds as slaughter speeds continue to be light compared to years past," Stewart said. "Quarter steer prices were unchanged from last month's report, with steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 expected to average $235, steers in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235, steers in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $235, and steers in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $240. Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 85 million pounds as Australia continues to send more supply, and exports were unchanged."
Friday's WASDE report shared a mixed view of the hog and pork markets of 2026, Stewart said.
"Pork production for 2026 was decreased by 150 million pounds as slaughter speeds and carcass weights are lighter than anticipated. Hog prices for 2026 were decreased as pork demand continues to remain under pressure. Hog prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 are now anticipated to average $55 (down $3), hog prices in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $60 (down $1), hog prices in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $65 (down $2) and hog prices in the third quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68. Pork imports for 2026 were increased by 5 million pounds, while hog exports were decreased by 60 million pounds."
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Join us for DTN's post-report webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT on Friday, Oct. 9, as we discuss USDA's new estimates in light of recent market events. Questions are welcome, and registrants will receive a replay link for viewing at their convenience. Register here for Friday's USDA WASDE webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….
| U.S. PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2026-27 | ||||||
Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2025-26 | |
| Corn | 16,034 | 15,716 | 16,115 | 15,344 | 15,800 | 17,021 |
| Soybeans | 4,562 | 4,541 | 4,648 | 4,415 | 4,535 | 4,262 |
| U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2026-27 (WASDE) | ||||||
| Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2025-26 |
| Corn | 181.2 | 177.6 | 182.1 | 173.2 | 178.5 | 186.5 |
| Soybeans | 53.1 | 52.9 | 54.1 | 51.4 | 52.8 | 53.0 |
| U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2026-27 | ||||||
Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | 2025-26 | |
| Corn | 88.5 | 88.5 | 88.6 | 88.1 | 88.5 | 91.3 |
| Soybeans | 85.9 | 85.8 | 85.9 | 85.5 | 85.9 | 80.4 |
| U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2026-27 | ||||||
Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 1,849 | 1,677 | 1,895 | 1,522 | 1,567 | |
| Soybeans | 315 | 311 | 358 | 245 | 310 | |
| Wheat | 740 | 722 | 750 | 701 | 717 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2025-26 | ||||||
Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 307.2 | 299.9 | 310.5 | 273.0 | 301.4 | |
| Soybeans | 124.9 | 125.2 | 127.4 | 123.0 | 125.3 | |
| Wheat | 281.6 | 280.4 | 281.0 | 279.0 | 280.6 | |
| WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2026-27 | ||||||
Oct | Avg | High | Low | Sep | ||
| Corn | 280.4 | 273.9 | 279.8 | 272.0 | 272.1 | |
| Soybeans | 124.3 | 123.8 | 126.0 | 121.7 | 124.0 | |
| Wheat | 276.0 | 276.8 | 279.6 | 275.0 | 276.3 | |
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