DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...108 AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN CALIFORNIA

LOW WED...21 AT 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...BROWNSVILLE, TX 2.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough in eastern Canada. Hurricane Isaias is strengthening in the Gulf while Tropical Storms Rachel and Simon are out in the Pacific. The ridge will get pushed eastward this weekend as a trough moves into the West. That will force Isaias north into the U.S. The western trough will absorb Rachel and Simon this weekend and next week, respectively, before moving eastward through the U.S. next week. Another ridge should develop behind it in the West later next week.

The U.S. and European models are starting to get more in line with the forecast, but the inclusion of tropical systems are making it difficult. I will use a blend but favor the European for now.

Isaias will leave off the East Coast on Monday while what remains of Rachel will move across the northern tier of the country for Monday and Tuesday.

Simon's remnants are expected to move into the Plains on Tuesday and create a storm system that will push through the country for the rest of the week, likely with widespread precipitation. Though a cold front south of Rachel's remnants will bring in some cooler air to the Northern Plains and allow for the region's first snowfall, temperatures should remain above normal for most other areas east of the Rockies until the system moves through next week with a burst of cooler air behind it.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry weather this week has aided in fieldwork progress. A system will move in this weekend and could produce some widespread precipitation into next week. There should be enough cold air for some accumulating snow in some areas, but most likely in Montana.

The specifics of which are being worked out, but should come late Sunday into early Monday. Another system is likely for the middle of next week with more rain. Even if there is no snow, the precipitation should disrupt fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry, warm, and sunny weather has helped soils to dry and producers to get out and resume fieldwork. Despite the areas of heavy rain over the last two weeks, drought is still a big issue in the region. However, a system will likely move through next week with scattered showers. Models are having a tough time with the forecast, but the potential is there and may include some tropical moisture that could produce areas of heavy rain. That would likely stall fieldwork again, but help to reduce drought.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather this week has allowed fields to dry out and producers to get back out for harvest, winter wheat planting, and other fieldwork. Some showers may spread into the region from late Saturday into early Monday due to the remnants of Hurricane Isaias moving through, though the coverage and intensity of rain are uncertain.

Otherwise, the next chance for significant rain will hold off until about the middle of next week with a system moving through. While we are getting a better window for fieldwork, there is some potential that next week's system could bring through a lot of rain again.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought continues to grow in the region, but recent heavy rainfall farther north is helping to keep water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Hurricane Isaias will continue to strengthen in the Gulf, moving northward and spreading some rain into the region this weekend. Despite that, rainfall amounts may not be heavy enough to significantly improve soil moisture in the region, though confidence is still somewhat low. After Isaias moves by, dry weather should resume until the end of next week when a system is likely to move through.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Southern Brazil will continue to have fronts move in with daily scattered showers through next week, which could create some flooding concerns, but central Brazil may see the coverage be overall inadequate as the typical monsoon showers aren't developing just yet. Models suggest better development later next week, but they will need to come or we could see dryness issues developing quickly this month.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Below-normal temperatures have been a concern so far this spring, keeping soil temperatures down, especially across the south.

Otherwise, the weather pattern is favoring more widespread showers across the country through next week, which is more favorable for developing wheat and corn planting after the last few months of inadequate rainfall.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system continues to move east through Europe, producing favorable, widespread precipitation to a lot of the continent. The weather pattern will stay active across northern areas of the continent, and may get some showers into France, Germany, and Poland this weekend and next week, but getting rain farther south may be a difficult task, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment in these areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent dryness has helped producers do fieldwork, but has created mixed conditions for winter wheat establishment with fair conditions in Ukraine, but poorer conditions in western Russia. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with only spotty showers now in Ukraine with a front on Friday and another system this weekend. Western Russia is forecast to stay drier through next week now, which is very unfavorable there.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought a few showers to western areas on Wednesday and will bring some to eastern areas for Friday and Saturday, but with limited coverage and intensity. Another system could bring some heavier showers to eastern areas Sunday and Monday, but that is uncertain.

While the showers will be helpful, rainfall amounts continue to be largely below normal at a critical time for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though there has been some disruption to the corn and soybean harvest over the last week or so, dry weather this week and much of next should promote better harvest conditions.

Soil moisture is currently adequate for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment in south-central China, but more rain would be favorable there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers in Iowa Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Isolated showers far north Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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