DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...109 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...19 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...BROWNSVILLE, TX 2.21 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a new trough moving into eastern Canada.

Tropical Storm Isaias is strengthening in the Gulf while Hurricane Rachel is out in the Pacific and another tropical storm is developing off the coast of Mexico. The ridge will get pushed eastward this weekend as a trough moves into the West. That will force Isaias north into the U.S. The western trough will absorb Rachel and the other tropical storm this weekend and next week, respectively, before moving eastward through the U.S. next week. Another ridge should develop behind it in the West later next week.

The U.S. and European models are having issues with the forecast for next week due to all the tropical inclusion. I will use a blend but favor the European for now.

Isaias will move into the Gulf Coast on Friday night or early Saturday, spreading rain north and east through the weekend and Monday. A cold front will produce precipitation across the north early next week. A system will be absorbing tropical storms out in the West this weekend and early next week, producing heavy rain in the Southwest, before moving east mid-late next week with scattered showers for many areas of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry weather continues this week, aiding in fieldwork progress. A system will move in this weekend and could produce some widespread precipitation into next week. There could even be enough cold air for some accumulating snow. Models show some potential for this, but not much confidence in the overall forecast. Either way, this system will disrupt harvest, but only briefly as the pattern still promotes an overall drier look for October.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry, warm, and sunny weather continues through the weekend. That will help soils to dry and producers to get out and resume fieldwork. Despite the areas of heavy rain over the last two weeks, drought is still a big issue in the region. And although wet areas will get a chance to drain, the drier weather is not favorable for winter wheat establishment. However, a system will likely move through next week with scattered showers. Models are having a tough time with the forecast, though.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather continues this week, allowing fields to dry out and producers to get back out into the field for harvest, winter wheat planting, and other fieldwork. Some showers may spread into the region from late Saturday into Monday due to Tropical Storm Isaias developing in the Gulf, though the coverage and intensity are uncertain.

Otherwise, the next chance for significant rain will hold off until about the middle of next week with a system moving through.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Drought continues to grow in the region, but recent heavy rainfall farther north is helping to keep water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Dry weather continues for the next few days, but Tropical Storm Isaias will continue to strengthen in the Gulf, moving northward and spreading some rain into the region this weekend.

Despite that, rainfall amounts may not be heavy enough to significantly improve soil moisture in the region, though confidence is still somewhat low.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front brought heavy rain to southern Brazil over the last couple of days and some more limited coverage to central Brazil as well. Southern areas will continue to have fronts move in with scattered showers into next week, which could create some flooding concerns, but central Brazil may see the coverage be overall inadequate as the typical monsoon showers aren't developing just yet. Models suggest better development later next week, but they will need to come or we could see dryness issues developing quickly this month.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Below-normal temperatures have been a concern so far this spring, keeping soil temperatures down, especially across the south.

Otherwise, the weather pattern is favoring more widespread showers across the country through next week, which is more favorable for developing wheat and corn planting after the last few months of inadequate rainfall.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system in western Europe will move east over the next couple of days, producing favorable, widespread precipitation to a lot of the continent. The weather pattern will stay active across northern areas of the continent, and may get some showers into France, Germany, and Poland this weekend and next week, but getting rain farther south may be a difficult task, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment in these areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent dryness has helped producers do fieldwork, but has created mixed conditions for winter wheat establishment with fair conditions in Ukraine, but poorer conditions in western Russia. Very little precipitation is in the forecast, with only spotty showers now in Ukraine with a front on Friday and another system this weekend. Western Russia is forecast to stay drier through next week now, which is very unfavorable there.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system will bring a few showers to western areas on Wednesday and then eastern areas for Friday and Saturday, but with limited coverage and intensity. Another system could bring some heavier showers to eastern areas Sunday and Monday, but that is uncertain. While the showers will be helpful, rainfall amounts continue to be largely below normal at a critical time for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though there has been some disruption to the corn and soybean harvest over the last week or so, dry weather this week and much of next should promote better harvest conditions.

Soil moisture is currently adequate for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment, but more rain would be favorable there.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday, southeast Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

East: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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