DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...110 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...19 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...JACKSONVILLE, FL 3.29 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough in eastern Canada. A disturbance will move over the top of the ridge into eastern Canada again this week. The ridge will get pushed eastward this weekend as a trough moves into the West.

That trough will move eastward next week while the ridge redevelops in the West again, returning to the overall stable pattern for October.

The U.S. and European models have very different looks. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains this weekend and then eastward across the country next week with scattered showers. Some pockets of heavier rain will be possible in some areas, but models are uncertain about exactly where. Remnants of Pacific hurricanes may impact the pattern as well. It will be warm ahead of the system with a short burst of colder air moving in behind it.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was drier over the weekend and should be dry for most areas this week. A system will move in this weekend and could produce some widespread precipitation into early next week. If some cold air coincides with the precipitation, there could be some accumulating snow. Models show some potential for this, but not much confidence. Either way, this system will disrupt harvest, but only briefly as the pattern still promotes an overall drier look for October.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some rain fell in Texas over the weekend, but drier weather has moved in and will stick around all week. That will help soils to dry and producers to get out and do fieldwork. Despite the areas of heavy rain over the last two weeks, some areas did not see very much and drought is still a big issue in the region. Wet areas will get a chance to drain, but the drier pattern is not favorable for winter wheat establishment. A system will likely move through next week, but the precipitation forecast is uncertain with it.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It got dry over the weekend and will be dry for most areas this week. That will allow fields to dry out and producers to get back out into the field for harvest and winter wheat planting.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front pushed through with scattered showers over the weekend, but with very little coverage or intensity. Drought is growing in the region, but heavier rainfall farther north is helping to keep water levels up on the Mississippi River for transportation. Dry weather is expected to continue this week, though some models have a tropical system developing in the Gulf later this week that should be monitored.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front kept scattered showers going over central Brazil over the weekend, creating some pockets of heavy rain and disappointing dryness elsewhere. Another front moved through southern areas on Sunday and coverage there was much more widespread with heavy rain. Some areas are a bit too wet in the south, otherwise the good coverage should be overall favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting. The southern front should continue showers into central Brazil through midweek before coverage gets much more isolated there again. Southern areas will continue to have fronts move in with scattered showers into next week, but central Brazil may see the coverage be overall inadequate as the typical monsoon showers should be weaker this year because of the super El Nino in the Pacific. While not concerning just yet, the forecast is not favorable for the next couple of weeks. Some longer range models have better coverage for the second half of October, but that is an uncertain forecast.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through over the weekend with widespread showers but light amounts. Temperatures are again falling behind the system and overall below-normal temperatures continue to plague the country.

Though not producing frosts, the cooler temperatures are keeping soil temperatures down, especially across the south, and growth and corn planting slow. The positive news for producers is that the weather pattern continues to be quite active and scattered showers are forecast somewhere in the country each day this week. That should help to keep soil moisture up or improving in much of the country.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system developed on the tail end of a front across Spain over the weekend, producing scattered showers there. Otherwise, the continent was largely dry. The system will move east this week, producing favorable, widespread precipitation to a lot of the continent except in the southeast, where it will stay unfavorably drier. The weather pattern will stay active across far northern areas of the continent, and may get some showers into France, Germany, and Poland this weekend and next week, but getting rain farther south will be a difficult task, unfavorable for winter wheat establishment in these areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): It was dry over the weekend. In Ukraine, that helped producers get into the field for planting, but in drier western Russia, soils are a bit too dry in many areas for winter wheat establishment. Very little precipitation is expected until a front moves in on Friday and moves across this weekend. Even so, getting rain south through the region will be tough to do.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through eastern areas over the weekend, but a lot of areas stayed unfavorably dry. A system will move into western areas midweek and then eastern areas for late this week and weekend.

While the showers will be helpful, rainfall amounts continue to be largely below normal at a critical time for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through central and northeast China over the weekend, causing some disruption to the ongoing corn and soybean harvest. However, it'll be largely dry this week, which should get producers out harvesting. Soil moisture is currently adequate for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment, but more would be favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday-Friday.

Temperatures near normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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