Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heavy rain moving out of the country and a drier pattern setting up in the U.S., and a focus toward South America planting conditions are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

FRONT EXITING MIDWEST, DRIER PATTERN SETTLING IN

A front will move out of the Midwest on Friday after producing areas of heavy rain across Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Missouri. The heavy rain is bringing problems in terms of grain quality and harvest delays. After the front clears the region, drier weather is in the forecast for the following couple of weeks. Fronts will still push through, and may bring some isolated showers, but overall drier conditions will help areas to drain and fieldwork to resume.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TURNING DRIER AFTER FLOODING RAIN

A system and front have produced areas of heavy rain across much of the Central and Southern Plains this week, which is exiting southeast on Friday. The heavy rain will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but flooding has caused damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field. It has also slowed any progress for harvest or winter wheat planting. After this system clears the region, conditions will become much drier for the following couple of weeks, allowing fields to drain and progress to resume.

NORTHERN PLAINS RELATIVELY DRY, FAVORING HARVEST

The weather pattern is changing in the Northern Plains. And while a few fronts will move through over the next couple of weeks, precipitation will be hard to come by. Temperatures will also trend above-normal, especially next week. The warmer and drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH DELTA, DROUGHT STILL BUILDING

Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the Delta, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops. Dryness following the front will continue to exacerbate the drought conditions as well.

FRONTS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAVORABLE RAIN IN BRAZIL

A front continues to slowly push through central Brazil and may continue to produce rain over the weekend as well. This slow movement has brought widespread coverage and should be considered the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. Producers should be planting at their overall rapid pace for October. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting. Despite all the rain chances and coverage from fronts, the daily pop-up type of showers have been lacking and are forecast to be more sparse through at least the first half of October, leaving the country reliant on continued hits from fronts, which is less reliable. If that is indeed the case, we could see dryness concerns developing if the fronts fail to make it north into central Brazil.

RAIN IN ARGENTINA, BUT STILL A BIT TOO COOL

Systems have been bringing more widespread precipitation to Argentina lately, favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting. Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation. But cooler air following the systems has been keeping soil temperatures from rising into the optimal range, especially south, limiting producers' planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air hits continue through October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

WESTERN EUROPE SEEING RAIN, BUT MANY AREAS STILL TOO DRY

A system brought rainfall to France and parts of Germany this week, but left many other areas in Europe dry. The front has stalled out over Spain though, and showers could continue there into the weekend. A low-pressure center developing along that front could spread more showers through Europe next week. Otherwise, only limited precipitation is expected and will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA REGION DRIER FOR ANOTHER WEEK

Drier conditions in the Black Sea region this week will continue through next week. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions. While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly drier the last several weeks.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA DURING DRIER OVERALL PATTERN

Moderate showers went through far southeastern Australia this week, but much of the country's wheat and canola acres remained dry or saw limited showers. The forecast is not very promising with very little precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country as the overall dry trend continues.

FRONTS MOVING THROUGH CHINA MAY DISRUPT HARVEST, FAVOR WINTER PLANTING

The weather pattern is promoting occasional storm systems across central and northeast China, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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