DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...107 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...23 AT FOXPARK, WY AND 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...LINCOLN, NE 4.92 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East, a trough dying in the South-Central, another trough in Canada, and a ridge in the West. The southern trough will dissipate on Friday as it gets squeezed between the two ridges. The western ridge will be anchored there through next week. A couple of disturbances will move over the ridge this weekend and next week, which will deepen across the East. This creates a fairly stable ridge-west and trough-east pattern, which is drier for most of the country and results in a warmer west and variable east pattern as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but the European is still having trouble finding any cooler air. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more realistic on temperatures.

A burst of cooler air will move through eastern areas of the country early next week, but won't last long. Meanwhile the West will remain quite warm.

Another front may push through in the middle of next week, but models have backed off on the strength of this front. A system may move through Canada next weekend, but precipitation is forecast to be light or absent. Overall, it should be much drier next week with warm temperatures in the West and variable temperatures in the East. This should help recent wet areas to dry out and for producers to get back into the field to resume harvest, plant winter crops, and do other fieldwork.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern is changing. And while a few fronts will move through over the next couple of weeks, precipitation will be hard to come by. Temperatures will also trend above-normal, especially next week. The warmer and drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system and front have produced areas of heavy rain across much of the region this week, which is exiting southeast on Friday. The heavy rain will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but flooding has caused damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field. It has also slowed any progress for harvest or winter wheat planting. After this system clears the region, conditions will become much drier for the following couple of weeks, allowing fields to drain and progress to resume.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move out of the region on Friday after producing areas of heavy rain across Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Missouri. The heavy rain is bringing problems in terms of grain quality and harvest delays. After the front clears the region, drier weather is in the forecast for the following couple of weeks. Fronts will still push through, and may bring some isolated showers, but overall drier conditions will help areas to drain and fieldwork to resume.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the region, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops. Dryness following the front will continue to exacerbate the drought conditions as well.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front continues to slowly push through central Brazil and may continue to produce rain over the weekend as well. This slow movement has brought widespread coverage and should be considered the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. Producers should be planting at their overall rapid pace for October. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting. Despite all the rain chances and coverage from fronts, the daily pop-up type of showers have been lacking and are forecast to be more sparse through at least the first half of October, leaving the country reliant on continued hits from fronts, which is less reliable. If that is indeed the case, we could see dryness concerns developing if the fronts fail to make it north into central Brazil.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Systems have been bringing more widespread precipitation lately, favorable for winter wheat development and corn planting.

Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation. But cooler air following the systems has been keeping soil temperatures from rising into the optimal range, especially south, limiting producer's planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air hits continue through October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system brought rainfall to France and parts of Germany this week, but left many other areas dry. The front has stalled out over Spain though, and showers could continue there into the weekend. A low-pressure center developing along that front could spread more showers through Europe next week. Otherwise, only limited precipitation is expected and will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions this week will continue through next week. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions.

While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly drier the last several weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Moderate showers went through far southeastern growing areas this week, but much of the country's wheat and canola acres remained dry or saw limited showers. The forecast is not very promising with very little precipitation over the next couple of weeks. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country as the overall dry trend continues.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The weather pattern is promoting occasional storm systems across central and northeast China, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south far Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers southeast Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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