DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East, a trough in the South-Central, another trough in Canada, and a ridge building in the West. The southern trough will dissipate over the next couple of days as it gets squeezed between the two ridges. The western ridge will be anchored there through next week. A couple of disturbances will move over the ridge this weekend and next week, which are likely to deepen across the East. This creates more of a ridge-west and trough-east pattern, which is drier for most of the country and results in a warmer west and cooler east pattern as well.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar, but the European is having trouble finding any cooler air. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more realistic on temperatures.

A burst of cooler air will move through eastern areas of the country early next week behind a cold front while the West will remain quite warm. Another front may push through in the middle of next week, but models have backed off on the strength of this front. Overall, it should be much drier next week with warm temperatures in the West and variable temperatures in the East.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...107 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...24 AT FOXPARK, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...AMARILLO, TX 3.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East, a trough in the South-Central, another trough in Canada, and a ridge building in the West. The southern trough will dissipate over the next couple of days as it gets squeezed between the two ridges. The western ridge will be anchored there through next week. A couple of disturbances will move over the ridge this weekend and next week, which are likely to deepen across the East. This creates more of a ridge-west and trough-east pattern, which is drier for most of the country and results in a warmer west and cooler east pattern as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but the European is having trouble finding any cooler air. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more realistic on temperatures.

A burst of cooler air will move through eastern areas of the country early next week behind a cold front while the West will remain quite warm. Another front may push through in the middle of next week, but models have backed off on the strength of this front. Overall, it should be much drier next week with warm temperatures in the West and variable temperatures in the East.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern is changing and while a few fronts will move through over the next couple of weeks, precipitation will be hard to come by. Temperatures will also trend above-normal, especially next week. The warmer and drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system and front have produced areas of heavy rain across much of the region this week, which continues on Thursday and exits southeast on Friday. The heavy rain will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but there are risks for flooding that could cause damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field, and slow any progress for harvest or winter wheat planting. After this system clears the region, conditions will become much drier for the following couple of weeks, allowing fields to drain and progress to resume.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to slowly move across the region through Friday with widespread showers. Areas of heavy rain have already occurred in Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Missouri, which will shift southward before exiting on Friday. The heavy rain will continue to bring problems in terms of grain quality and harvest delays. After the front clears the region on Friday, drier weather is in the forecast for the following couple of weeks. Fronts will still push through, and may bring some isolated showers, but overall drier conditions will help areas to drain and fieldwork to resume.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the region, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops. Dryness following the front will continue to exacerbate the drought conditions as well.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front continues to slowly push northward through central Brazil throughout the rest of the week and may continue showers over the weekend as well. This slow movement is bringing widespread coverage and should be considered the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. If the rain is not heavy enough but remains widespread, producers would still be likely to continue planting at a regular pace. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting. Despite all the rain chances and coverage from fronts, the daily pop-up type of showers have been lacking and are forecast to be more sparse through the first half of October, leaving the country reliant on continued hits from fronts, which is less reliable. If that is indeed the case, we could see dryness concerns developing if the fronts fail to make it north into central Brazil.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system produced widespread coverage of light to moderate rainfall earlier this week. That would be beneficial, but colder air has followed in behind the system. Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation, but again would be followed by a burst of cooler air. The cooler conditions have kept soil temperatures from rising, limiting producer's planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air hits continue through October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system is pushing through western Europe this week, with the best rainfall in France and parts of Germany. The front should stall out over Spain though, and showers could continue there into the weekend. A low-pressure center developing along that front could spread more showers through Europe next week. Otherwise, only limited precipitation is expected and will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A storm system spinning in the Black Sea has been producing a few showers for the far south, but most areas continue to be dry this week and probably next week as well. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions. While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly drier the last several weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers are moving through some eastern areas over the next couple of days. Afterward, very little precipitation is in the forecast. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country as the overall dry trend continues.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The weather pattern is becoming more active across central and northeast China, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Scattered showers Thursday, south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, near normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday, southeast Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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