DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...104 AT LA PUERTA, TX

LOW TUE...22 AT STANLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SANTA FE, NM 2.15 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge building in the East, a trough in the Southwest, and another trough in Canada. The southern trough is ingesting the remnants of Hurricane Polo, bringing heavy rain to the South-Central U.S., but will dissipate over the next couple of days. A ridge will overspread the U.S. behind both of those troughs, but will be anchored in the West as a couple of disturbances will move through this weekend and next week, which are likely to deepen across the East.

This creates more of a ridge-west and trough-east pattern, which is drier for most of the country and results in a warmer west and cooler east pattern as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but the European is having trouble finding any cooler air. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more realistic on temperatures.

A very weak system is forecast for the weekend across the north, but will bring through some cooler air for the eastern half of the country. Another cold front is forecast to push south through the country mid-late next week. It may or may not produce much precipitation, but could bring through another burst of colder air into at least the eastern half of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has exited on Tuesday after bringing through some heavy amounts to the Dakotas. The pattern is changing and while a few more fronts will move through over the next couple of weeks, precipitation will be hard to come by. The drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system and front are combining to produce areas of heavy rain across much of the region through Thursday, exiting southeast on Friday. The heavy rain will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but there are risks for flooding that could cause damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field, and slow any progress for harvest or winter wheat planting. After this system clears the region, conditions will become much drier for the following couple of weeks, allowing fields to drain and progress to be made.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to slowly move across the region this week with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Areas of heavy rain may be a problem, with Iowa, Missouri, and northern Illinois as the favored targets. Potential for heavy rain is lower elsewhere in the region. If these spots indeed see heavy rain, it will continue to bring problems in terms of grain quality and harvest delays. After the front clears the region on Friday, drier weather is in the forecast for the following couple of weeks.

Fronts will still push through, and may bring some isolated showers, but overall drier conditions will help areas to drain and fieldwork to resume.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the region, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. A front will move through on Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops. Dryness following the front will continue to exacerbate the drought conditions as well.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Harvest continues to be well behind schedule, but conditions are improving for harvest with only spotty showers and overall warmer temperatures for the first half of October.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front is slowly pushing northward from southern into central Brazil throughout the rest of the week. This slow movement should bring widespread coverage and should be considered the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. If the rain is not heavy enough but remains widespread, producers would still be likely to continue planting at a regular pace. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting. Despite all the rain chances and coverage from fronts, the daily pop-up type of showers have been lacking and are forecast to be more sparse through the first half of October.

If that is indeed the case, we could see dryness concerns developing if the fronts fail to make it north into central Brazil.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system will produced widespread coverage of light to moderate rainfall over the last few days. That would be beneficial, but colder air is following in behind the system. Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation, but again would be followed by a burst of cooler air. The cooler conditions have kept soil temperatures from rising much, limiting producers' planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air continues into October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system is pushing through Europe this week, but with the best rainfall in France and Germany. The front should stall out over Spain though, and showers could continue there into the weekend, which would be favorable. Otherwise, only limited precipitation elsewhere on the continent will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A storm system spinning in the Black Sea has been producing a few showers for the far south, but most areas continue to be dry this week. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions. While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly dry the last several weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through parts of Western Australia over the weekend and is now bringing some limited showers to eastern areas over the next couple of days. Afterward, very little precipitation is in the forecast. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country as the overall dry trend continues.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The weather pattern is becoming more active across central and northeast China, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday, south Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday, southeast Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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