DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...105 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...21 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT, 2 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE BITTEROOT LAKE, MT, AND OLNEY, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...PORTLAND, ME 1.47 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough on the East Coast, another in the Southwest, and one more in western Canada. The East Coast trough will gradually dissolve over the next day or so, being replaced by a ridge while the other two troughs head east through the U.S. and Canada, respectively. The southern trough will ingest the remnants of Hurricane Polo, bringing heavy rain to the South-Central U.S. A ridge will overspread the U.S. behind both of those troughs, but will be anchored in the West as a couple of disturbances will move through this weekend and next week. The second disturbance could become a larger trough over the eastern half of North America as the pattern may shift to more of a ridge-west and trough-east pattern. This would mean a warmer west and cooler east pattern as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but the European is having trouble finding any cooler air. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is more realistic on temperatures.

A front will likely be pushing through the Southeast this weekend with potential for heavy rain. A very weak system is forecast for the weekend across the north, but could bring through some cooler air for the eastern half of the country. Another cold front is forecast to push south through the country mid-late next week. It may or may not produce much precipitation, but could bring through another burst of colder air into at least the eastern half of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front and associated scattered showers will exit on Tuesday after bringing through some heavy amounts to the Dakotas. That will be followed by largely dry weather afterward.

The drier conditions will promote fieldwork opportunities for harvest and winter planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers will increase with a front and remnant hurricane moving through over the next several days. Areas of heavy rain are forecast across much of the region. That will certainly help with the ongoing drought, but there are risks for flooding that could cause damage and quality concerns for crops out in the field, and slow any progress for harvest or winter wheat planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move across the region this week with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Areas of heavy rain may be a problem, though Iowa, Missouri, and northern Illinois are the favored targets with lower potential elsewhere in the region. If these spots indeed see heavy rain, it will continue to bring problems in terms of grain quality and harvest delays.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the region, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory.

Much of the week will remain dry, but a front should move through Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. This should pause the harvest, and may increase soil moisture a bit, but deficits continue to build and are becoming an issue for any winter crops.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Harvest continues to be well behind schedule, but conditions are improving for harvest with only spotty showers and overall warmer temperatures for the first half of October.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front will slowly push northward from southern into central Brazil throughout the week. This slow movement should bring widespread coverage and should be considered the start of the wet season, essentially on time this year. Another system moving through this weekend into next week should add to that as well. If the rain is not heavy enough but remains widespread, producers would still be likely to continue planting at a regular pace. Southern areas may be getting a bit too wet, though. Frequent heavy rain has produced limited problems so far, but continued hits could lead to more issues with flooding and delays to planting.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system will leave on Tuesday after producing widespread coverage of light to moderate rainfall. However, colder air will follow in behind the system this week, which has been more concerning. Another system moving through this weekend may produce more precipitation, but again would be followed by a burst of cooler air. The cooler conditions have kept soil temperatures from rising very well, limiting producer's planting for the first phase of corn and development of winter wheat. If the cooler air continues into October, producers may decide to shift more of their corn planting to the second window between December and January or could switch some crops over to soybeans instead.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system is pushing through Europe this week, but with the best rainfall in France and maybe Germany. If the front stalls out over Spain, though, showers could continue into the weekend, which would be favorable. Otherwise, only limited precipitation elsewhere on the continent will be unfavorable for winter wheat establishment.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A storm system spinning in the Black Sea could produce a few showers for the far south for the next couple of days, but most areas are forecast to be dry this week. With winter wheat planting underway, that is creating mixed conditions. While the dryness should not be an issue for much of Ukraine, which had some good rainfall last week, it would be more of a concern for western Russia, which has been fairly dry the last several weeks.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through parts of Western Australia over the weekend while the east was dry. The system will bring some limited showers to eastern areas later this week, but it has been very dry over the last couple of months. Though satellite depicts overall good crop health, it should be falling in many areas of the country as the overall dry trend continues.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): The weather pattern is looking more active across central and northeast China, which could cause some disruptions to harvest. However, south-central winter wheat and canola areas could use more rain for planting and establishment. The recent and forecast rainfall should be favorable for these crops in this region.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday, south Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Scattered showers north Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6-to-10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday, southeast Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

6-to-10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday, north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, above normal north and below normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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