DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America, with a trough on the East Coast, a disturbance in central Canada, another in the Southwest, and another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. The East Coast trough will sit there into next week. Both the Canadian and Southwestern disturbances will move northeast this weekend. The Pacific Northwest trough will move into Canada this weekend, with another moving through the U.S. next week. Another trough will rebuild in the Gulf of Alaska next week and should be a common feature through much of the winter season, occasionally pushing eastward through the U.S. and/or Canada.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are having a tough time with the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system is forecast to push through the country next week, but may be slow to do so and have better coverage of rain across the south. Another system could sweep through the country next weekend. Temperatures are forecast to rise above normal next week, being milder across the South where it may rain more. Temperatures may fall better behind a system that moves through next weekend, rising back in the West.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...110 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW THU...24 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...GOODLAND, KS 1.01 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America, with a trough on the East Coast, a disturbance in central Canada, another in the Southwest, and another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. The East Coast trough will sit there into next week. Both the Canadian and Southwestern disturbances will move northeast this weekend. The Pacific Northwest trough will move into Canada this weekend, with another moving through the U.S. next week. Another trough will rebuild in the Gulf of Alaska next week and should be a common feature through much of the winter season, occasionally pushing eastward through the U.S. and/or Canada.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are having a tough time with the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system is forecast to push through the country next week, but may be slow to do so and have better coverage of rain across the south. Another system could sweep through the country next weekend. Temperatures are forecast to rise above normal next week, being milder across the South where it may rain more.

Temperatures may fall better behind a system that moves through next weekend, rising back in the West.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers will continue to sit across the Dakotas through Saturday with another system moving through with somewhat more widespread rain for Monday and Tuesday. The recent and forecast rain is helpful for the ongoing drought, but not for maturing corn and soybeans.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A zone of showers and embedded thunderstorms have been moving across the region over the last couple of days, producing some areas of moderate to heavy rain. That continues into Saturday and could create some areas of localized flooding or otherwise soggy conditions, slowing fieldwork. Another system is now forecast to slowly move through the region next week with more widespread rain which again could be heavy in spots. The recent and forecast rain is not favorable for maturing corn and soybeans, or their harvest, but will be favorable for reducing drought and improving conditions for winter wheat establishment, assuming progress can be made in planting it.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Eastern areas of the region are drying out while western areas continue to see showers through the weekend. Another front will move through next week with scattered showers, and we will have to watch how slowly a system moves across southern areas behind it next week. Some areas of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, especially around Missouri and Iowa. That would slow harvest and other fieldwork while other areas of the region may not see large-scale impacts. This is a change to the forecast from earlier this week, and is subject to change again, but heavy rain is not favorable this time of year.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the region, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory.

Harvest for cotton and soybeans should be moving along fairly easily. Though some spotty showers will move through on Sunday, most areas will stay dry until a system moves through next week. Models are having a tough time with this system, but this one could produce much better rain if it is slow to move through.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Harvest continues to be well behind schedule, and recent rain has produced quality issues. However, drier and warmer conditions this week have been more favorable. A system moving through on Friday and Saturday may only produce meaningful precipitation in Alberta, with drier conditions elsewhere that would remain favorable. The weather pattern continues to be active next week with a couple of systems moving through, though widespread rain is not in the forecast. Producers may still have a difficult time catching up with harvest.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front brought some areas of showers into central Brazil this week after producing heavy rain farther south. It did produce some flooding across southern states, otherwise conditions are favorable for planting of first-crop soybeans and full-season corn. Another front is forecast to move through next week and may kick off the annual start to the wet season in central Brazil, essentially on time this year. That should get producers planting soybeans at a relatively normal pace.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Fronts have frequently moved across Argentina, but it has been largely too cold and dry for developing wheat or corn planting.

A system moving through Sunday into early next week may produce more widespread moderate rain that the country needs, but would be followed by another burst of colder air, making corn planting rather slow. Producers may switch more of their planting to the later window if this keeps up through October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Eastern Europe has seen some isolated rainfall this week, but not enough to significantly improve soil moisture. Meanwhile, it continues to be warmer and dry in the west, where drought still exists, and is getting worse in Spain. There could be some issues with winter wheat establishment here and around Hungary as well. The forecast does depict a good system moving through western areas early-to-mid next week, but coverage may not be enough for improvement across all areas. Meanwhile, eastern areas are forecast to be drier again.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system spinning around the Black Sea region this week has produced some heavy rain in central and eastern Ukraine, but more limited showers in western Russia. The system will be leaving on Friday with overall drier conditions into next week. However, another system spinning in the Black Sea could get some showers into southern areas early next week. The coverage is expected to be poor, though. While soil moisture has likely increased nicely in Ukraine, it is poor in many parts of western Russia, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers may hit the west through the weekend, but eastern areas look to remain dry until maybe the middle of next week. The continued drier look is concerning for reproductive winter wheat and canola in the east, while conditions are only slightly better in the west.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It had been largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. Fronts are becoming a bit more common going into early October though. Rain may not be extremely heavy, but would result in better coverage of moderate to perhaps spotty heavy amounts. That may disrupt harvest, but would be beneficial for winter wheat and canola planting in central China.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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