DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...108 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...26 AT 18 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SENECA, OR, AND 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHESUNCOOK, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...EL PASO, TX 1.62 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America, with a trough in the Mid-Atlantic, a disturbance stretched out from Manitoba to Arizona, and another trough in the Gulf of Alaska. The eastern trough will sit along the East Coast into next week. The central disturbance will get pulled into two pieces with the northern portion going through Canada and the southern portion moving northeast this weekend. And the Gulf of Alaska trough will move into Canada this weekend, with another moving through the U.S. next week.

Another trough will rebuild in the Gulf of Alaska next week and should be a common feature through much of the winter season, occasionally pushing eastward through the U.S. and Canada.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are having a tough time with the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is pushing the system along better next week.

A system is forecast to push through the country with widespread showers and thunderstorms next week. Temperatures are forecast to rise above normal ahead of the system, but are likely to fall below normal behind it, though only briefly. Models are having a tough time deciding how much cool air to bring through the country next week behind that system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A zone of showers will continue to sit across the Dakotas on Thursday and more are expected this weekend. Another system moving through early next week could provide good coverage of rainfall as well. All the rain chances will be helpful for the ongoing drought, but not for maturing corn and soybeans.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A string of somewhat solid showers and embedded thunderstorms has developed and will continue to meander across the region into Saturday. Some pockets of heavy rain are and will continue to occur within this band. A system moving through early next week should produce some widespread coverage of showers as well. That is favorable for moistening soils up for winter wheat planting and establishment, which has been in significantly building drought for months in many places. But for those looking to harvest, the rainfall will have some delaying effect. The rain is not forecast to be heavy enough to cause much flooding, but some localized issues may occur.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): It is getting drier for much of the eastern half of the region through the weekend, more conducive to some harvest and fieldwork activity. Several waves of showers will move through areas west of the Mississippi River through the weekend though, which may cause some delays.

A system will move through next week, likely with widespread coverage of moderate rain. The recent heavy rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with some of the drought across the north and southwest.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the region over the last week, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Harvest for cotton and soybeans should be moving along fairly easily. Dry conditions are likely through at least Saturday, with only spotty chances moving back in on Sunday. A better chance for widespread rain occurs next week with a system moving through, however.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Harvest continues to be well behind schedule, and recent rain has produced quality issues. However, drier and warmer conditions this week have been more favorable. A system moving through on Friday and Saturday may only produce meaningful precipitation in Alberta, with drier conditions elsewhere that would remain favorable. The weather pattern continues to be active next week with a couple of systems moving through, though widespread rain is not in the forecast. Producers may still have a difficult time catching up with harvest.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front brought some areas of showers into central Brazil this week after producing heavy rain farther south. It did produce some flooding across southern states, otherwise conditions are favorable for planting of first-crop soybeans and full-season corn. Another front is forecast to move through next week and may kick off the annual start to the wet season in central Brazil, essentially on time this year. That should get producers planting soybeans at a relatively normal pace.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Fronts have frequently moved across Argentina, but it has been largely too cold and dry for developing wheat or corn planting.

A system moving through Sunday into early next week may produce more widespread moderate rain that the country needs, but would be followed by another burst of colder air, making corn planting rather slow. Producers may switch more of their planting to the later window if this keeps up through October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Eastern Europe has seen some isolated rainfall this week, but not enough to significantly improve soil moisture. Meanwhile, it continues to be warmer and dry in the west, where drought still exists, and is getting worse in Spain. There could be some issues with winter wheat establishment here and still around Hungary as well. The forecast does depict a good system moving through western areas early or mid next week, but models are just starting to produce good rainfall there. They could easily trend drier over the coming days.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system spinning around the Black Sea region this week has produced some heavy rain in central and eastern Ukraine, but more limited showers in western Russia. The system will be leaving on Friday with overall drier conditions into next week. However, another system spinning in the Black Sea could get some showers into southern areas early next week. The coverage is expected to be poor, though. While soil moisture has likely increased nicely in Ukraine, it is poor in many parts of western Russia, creating mixed conditions for winter wheat planting and establishment.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers may hit the west over the next few days, but eastern areas look to remain dry until maybe the middle of next week. The continued drier look is concerning for reproductive winter wheat and canola in the east, while conditions are only slightly better in the west.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It had been largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. Fronts are becoming a bit more common going into early October though. Rain may not be extremely heavy, but would result in better coverage of moderate to perhaps spotty heavy amounts. That may disrupt harvest, but would be beneficial for winter wheat and canola planting in central China.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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