DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...104 AT LA PUERTA, TX

LOW TUE...20 AT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG BAY, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...SAVANNAH, GA 1.17 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the background across most of North America, with a trough in the Midwest, one moving into the Northern Plains, and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Midwest trough continues to slowly move to the East Coast over the next couple of days where it will sit into next week. The Northern Plains trough is weak, but will stretch out over the Plains over the next day or two before pushing through Canada. And the Gulf of Alaska trough will move into Canada this weekend, with another moving through the U.S. next week. A trough will rebuild in the Gulf of Alaska next week and should be a common feature through much of the winter season, occasionally pushing eastward through the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are having a tough time with the system for next week. I will use a blend but favor the GFS.

A system is forecast to push through the country with widespread showers and thunderstorms next week. Temperatures are forecast to rise above normal ahead of the system, but are likely to fall below normal behind it, though only briefly. Models are having a tough time deciding how much cool air to bring through the country next week behind that system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain has been somewhat frequent and widespread lately. More showers will move into the Dakotas on Wednesday and Thursday with a small system moving through, and more are expected this weekend. Another system moving through early next week could provide good coverage of rainfall as well. All the rain chances will be helpful for the ongoing drought, but not for maturing corn and soybeans.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A string of somewhat solid showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop across the region for the rest of the week, producing some areas of moderate to heavy rain from New Mexico into Nebraska. A system moving through early next week should produce some widespread coverage of showers as well. That is favorable for any immature crops and moistening soils up for winter wheat planting and establishment, which has been in significantly building drought for months in many places. But for those looking to harvest, the rainfall will have some delaying effect. The rain is not forecast to be heavy enough to cause flooding, but that may be something to watch out for anyway.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): It is getting drier for much of the eastern half of the region through the weekend, though some showers continue in Ohio on Wednesday, and several waves of showers will move through areas west of the Mississippi River through the weekend as well. A system will move through next week, likely with widespread coverage of moderate rain. The recent heavy rain has been unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with some of the drought across the north and southwest.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Recent extreme heat and dryness have led to further drought growth in the region over the last week, but rain farther north is keeping water levels on the Mississippi River from falling into dangerous territory. Harvest for cotton and soybeans should be moving along fairly easily. Dry conditions are likely through at least Saturday, with only spotty chances moving back in on Sunday. A better chance for widespread rain occurs next week with a system moving through, however.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Harvest continues to be well behind schedule, and recent rain has produced quality issues. However, drier and warmer conditions through much of this week should be more favorable. That is somewhat short-lived with another system moving through with potential for widespread rain on Friday and Saturday. Models are not producing much precipitation with this system outside of Alberta, however. The weather pattern continues to be active next week with a couple of systems moving through, though widespread rain is not in the forecast. Producers may still have a difficult time catching up with harvest.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Heavy rain moved back into southern Brazil over the weekend and into Monday and is now producing more limited rainfall into central Brazil. It did produce some flooding across southern states, otherwise conditions there are favorable for planting of first-crop soybeans and full-season corn. Another front is forecast to move through next week and may kick off the annual start to the wet season in central Brazil, essentially on time this year. That should get producers planting soybeans at a relatively normal pace.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Fronts have frequently moved across Argentina, but it has been largely too cold and dry for developing wheat or corn planting.

A system moving through this weekend into early next week may produce more widespread moderate rain that the country needs, but would be followed by another burst of colder air, making corn planting rather slow. Producers may switch more of their planting to the later window if this keeps up through October.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Eastern Europe will see some continued rainfall over the next couple of days, but should be spotty. Meanwhile, it continues to be warmer and dry in the west, where drought still exists, and is getting worse in Spain.

There could be some issues with winter wheat establishment here and still around Hungary as well. The forecast does depict a good system moving through western areas early next week, but models are just starting to produce good rainfall there. They could easily trend drier over the coming days.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system continues to spin around the Black Sea region for the next couple of days, producing some decent rain in some areas that could use it for winter wheat planting and establishment. Otherwise, it has been on the drier side lately, so this rain is needed.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers may hit the west over the next few days, with the better chances on Friday and Saturday. But eastern areas look to remain dry for about the next week. The continued drier look is concerning for reproductive winter wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It has been largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry. Fronts may become a bit more active late this week into early October. Rain may not be extremely heavy, but would result in better coverage of moderate to perhaps spotty heavy amounts.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated showers east Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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