DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT CHICKASHA, OK, STIGLER, OK, AND RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...24 AT 19 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OLD STATION, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...FORT WAYNE, IN 1.58 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge that across most of the U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest. The trough will slowly push eastward this weekend into early next week, settling in the East by late next week. The ridge will build in behind it across the Central U.S. mid-late next week. We should expect another trough to move into the Southwest U.S. by the middle of next week, which could move over the ridge late next week and weekend with a storm system as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar, with some disagreements on what to do with the Southwest trough next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Showers will continue in parts of the East for mid-late next week. We could see a small system produce showers and thunderstorms in the Plains for mid-late next week, but coverage and intensity are uncertain. Temperatures will generally be mild for most areas of the country, though above-normal temperatures are forecast across the Northern Plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues to push through South Dakota on Friday with widespread rain. Additional showers will follow it through the weekend, producing some areas of heavy rain and potential for flooding. That should help with the drought, but could disrupt harvest.

Drier conditions are forecast for much of next week, which should promote drainage and fieldwork.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers and areas of heavy rain have increased soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment in some areas, but drought remains a problem for much of the region. However, periods of rain should continue into next week, especially in the southwestern Plains, more favorable there. Showers elsewhere will need to be dodged for early harvest activity.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has continued to be active for most of the week, producing areas of heavy rain and some flooding. Another system moving through this weekend into early next week will bring several pulses of scattered showers and thunderstorms, again producing areas of heavy rain, especially across Minnesota and Wisconsin for Friday and Saturday. While the increase in soil moisture is nice for some that do winter crops, it is too late to help this year's corn and soybean crop. Instead, the heavy rain could make harvest difficult and introduce problems with molds and disease as they await harvest.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Hot and dry conditions this week have continued the trend toward building drought. Even a front moving through early next week is unlikely to bring much rain. Though showers farther north may help with keeping water levels up on the Mississippi River, and the dryness promotes harvest, drought continues to be an issue this fall.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Harvest continues to be well behind schedule and many areas remain wet, leading to quality issues. However, drier and somewhat warmer conditions are forecast this weekend and much of next week, which could be a bit more favorable.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front will arrive in southern Brazil this weekend with heavy rain possible into next week. We could see the front pushing north into central Brazil with some advanced showers as well. The start of the wet season should come at the end of the month and this front may be a catalyst toward that process. Soybean planting has started and will accelerate in October. As long as rain comes with decent coverage, progress should be quick this year. We will have to watch for some flooding potential across the south, however.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Recent cold and dry conditions have been unfavorable for developing wheat and corn planting, which should both accelerate going through the rest of the month. Systems continue to push through the country, but with limited rainfall that is starting to be a bit concerning.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers have been somewhat frequent this week across Europe, and more showers are forecast through early next week, especially in the east. That should help with soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. Western areas, and especially Spain, have been and continue to be drier, a bit unfavorable.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is a bit low but not critical for winter wheat planting and establishment. A system is forecast to move into the region early next week and sit there for several days, which may bring more widespread precipitation that would be favorable. It may make the corn harvest a bit more difficult, however.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be a fairly dry pattern across much of Australia. A system may move through Western Australia Friday-Saturday, which could help, but rain is becoming more critical with more of the winter wheat and canola crop getting into reproductive stages of growth. But additional rainfall through the end of the month may be hard to come by.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers through through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers east Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, near to below normal south and above normal north Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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