DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...109 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW MON...21 AT AUSTIN, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...FARGO, ND 1.10 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Eastern U.S. with a trough in the Pacific Northwest and north-central U.S. The Pacific Northwest trough could sit there for much of the week before pushing eastward this weekend. Eventually the ridge in the East will expand into the Central U.S. for the second half of the week, driving temperatures up across the Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.

The U.S. and European models are similar through the end of this week, with more significant differences by the middle of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should be pushing through the country this weekend into early next week, with some of the heaviest rain targeting the Dakotas and Upper Midwest Friday and Saturday. Widely scattered showers and storms are possible across the East early next week, but models disagree on when the system will exit into the Atlantic. They also disagree with how cool temperatures may be behind this system next week and how far south that would build. The most likely scenario would be for temperatures to remain on the warm side of normal with the ridge continuing to be a background feature.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and gusty winds moved through on Monday. Spotty showers are possible during the middle of the week, but heavier rain could return across the Dakotas on Friday. The heavy rain is too late to significantly improve maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with the ongoing drought.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Monday's cold front will continue to sweep south, targeting Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas on Tuesday. Late this week into the weekend, scattered showers will be likely from West Texas into Nebraska. The stormy pattern is both favorable and unfavorable. While the rain could improve drought and increase moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment, it could slow down corn harvest in Kansas and Texas. Temperatures will remain above average for much of Oklahoma and Texas this week, dipping closer to average for the Central Plains.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cold front will continue to push into the region early this week and stall, continuing areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Another system is forecast to move along that front this weekend into early next week with more widespread rain. The rain will not be helpful for many areas that are looking for drier conditions to get some harvest and other fieldwork done. Rain could cause some areas of flooding and perhaps some quality issues, but may also help with some of the drought conditions across the north. Southern areas will be hotter as they stay south of the front, and see drought conditions increasing if the system doesn't move through with adequate rain this weekend.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Largely hot and dry conditions are expected this week, though showers may increase early next week as a cold front may finally make it that far south. Overall, drought is expected to grow this week, unfavorable for any immature cotton or soybeans, but favoring harvest.

Rain farther north in the Midwest is helping to keep water levels from getting too low on the Mississippi River, but will be something to watch as rain stays north of the Ohio Valley this week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A big system moved through on Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rain, especially across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. With harvest far behind schedule, the rain will be unfavorable for those trying to catch up, and may cause further damage or quality problems in the region. Later this week into the upcoming weekend, swaths of showers could continue to drift through the southern Prairies. Temperatures will be cooler early this week, which could enhance quality problems; however, above-average temperatures will gradually build across the region late this week into early next week.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): Scattered showers continued across south-central Brazil on Monday, but dry conditions are expected Tuesday-Thursday. Another front will move in this weekend with more showers for southern areas. Some central areas could pickup a few showers, but they would be spotty while southern areas get more heavy rain. Outside of some flooding risks, the rain is favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting in the south while central areas await the lifting of restrictions and the start of the wet season at the end of the month.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front moved through this weekend but was fairly dry outside of a few lucky areas in the south that saw only light rain.

Cold air that moved in produced some areas of frosts and freezes across the south, keeping growth slow for winter wheat. Soils are still too cold for much corn planting to occur as well, which usually picks up toward the end of the month. Dry weather this week won't help as many areas are becoming too dry.

More rain is needed, especially across the south, which may not arrive until Sunday.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers went through over the weekend, but missed Spain, which has been both hot and a bit too dry for winter wheat planting and establishment. Areas of scattered showers and storms will move through this week with a large cold front swinging through, but showers will be spotty. Areas across the south could use some more rain, and a storm system Friday-Saturday could provide scattered showers and storms to Italy and the Balkans. The rain is not heavy enough to have much of an impact on corn harvest.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A system will continue to move through the region on Tuesday, but with spotty rainfall. Soil moisture is a bit low but not critical for winter wheat planting and establishment. There are some opportunities coming up later this week and through next week, but more rain than is forecast would be preferred.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be a fairly dry pattern across much of Australia, though some spotty rain did move through southern areas this weekend. A system may move through Western Australia Friday-Saturday, which could help, but rain is becoming more critical with more of the winter wheat and canola crop getting into reproductive stages of growth.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, especially north.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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