DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...113 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...26 AT 8 MILES EAST OF McCLOUD, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...BRIDGEPORT, CT 4.25 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the Central U.S. with a trough in the Northeast and another in the Northern Plains. Both troughs will move east near the U.S.

border for early this week while another move back into the Pacific Northwest.

That trough could sit there for much of the week before pushing eastward this weekend. Otherwise, the ridge will remain the dominant background feature, likely through the end of September.

The U.S. and European models are similar for early this week, but have some significant differences for a potential weekend storm and through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should be pushing through the country this weekend into early next week, but models are mixed on which areas will get hit with precipitation and for how long. They also disagree with how cool temperatures may be behind this system next week and how far south that would build. The most likely scenario would be for temperatures to remain on the warm side of normal with the ridge continuing to be a background feature.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but a bigger system will move through on Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some additional showers may be possible throughout the rest of week, but would likely be spottier. The heavy rain is too late to significantly improve maturing corn and soybeans, but should help with the ongoing drought.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, being heavier in eastern areas than what was forecast. Another front will slip into the northern half of the region on Monday, which will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms for much of the week. That is unlikely to help maturing corn and soybeans, but could improve drought. South of this front will remain hot. And while southeastern areas will be dry, southwestern areas could be wetter, which would help to increase moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through with some areas of showers this weekend, but was drier than expected in a lot of areas, allowing corn and soybeans to mature faster. However, a cold front will push into the region early this week and stall, continuing areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Another system is forecast to move along that front this weekend into early next week with more widespread rain, but models are unsure of its development. The rain will not be helpful for many areas that are looking for drier conditions to get some harvest and other fieldwork done. Rain could cause some areas of flooding and perhaps some quality issues, but may also help with some of the drought conditions across the north. Southern areas will be hotter as they stay south of the front, and see drought conditions increasing if the system doesn't move through with adequate rain this weekend.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front brought some isolated showers to the region this weekend, but many areas stayed dry while temperatures remained hot. Largely hot and dry conditions are expected this week, though showers may increase this weekend. Overall, drought is expected to grow this week, unfavorable for any immature cotton or soybeans, but favoring harvest.

Rain farther north in the Midwest is helping to keep water levels from getting too low on the Mississippi River, but will be something to watch as rain stays north of the Ohio Valley this week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through the region over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. However, a big system will move through on Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rain, especially across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. With harvest far behind schedule, the rain will be unfavorable for those trying to catch up, and may cause further damage or quality problems in the region.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front produced scattered showers over south-central Brazil over the weekend, which continues into Monday. Another front will move in this weekend with more showers for southern areas. Some central areas could pickup a few showers, but they would be spotty while southern areas get more heavy rain. Outside of some flooding risks, the rain is favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting in the south while central areas await the lifting of restrictions and the start of the wet season at the end of the month.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front moved through this weekend but was fairly dry outside of a few lucky areas in the south that saw only light rain.

Cold air that moved in produced some areas of frosts and freezes across the south, keeping growth slow for winter wheat. Soils are still too cold for much corn planting to occur as well, which usually picks up toward the end of the month. Dry weather this week won't help as many areas are becoming too dry.

More rain is needed, especially across the south. That impacts developing winter wheat as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers went through over the weekend, but missed Spain, which has been both hot and a bit too dry for winter wheat planting and establishment. Areas of scattered showers will move through this week, but will be fairly light. Areas across the south could use some more rain. The rain is not heavy enough to have much of an impact on corn harvest.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A system will move through the region on Monday and Tuesday, but with spotty rainfall. Soil moisture is a bit low but not critical for winter wheat planting and establishment. There are some opportunities coming up later this week and through next week, but more rain than is forecast would be preferred.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be a fairly dry pattern across much of Australia, though some spotty rain did move through southern areas this weekend. A system may move through Western Australia late this week, which could help, but rain is becoming more critical with more of the winter wheat and canola crop getting into reproductive stages of growth.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north.Temperatures above normal Monday, near normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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