DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...118 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW THU...20 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...NEW ORLEANS, LA 3.87 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough moving through eastern Canada, one in the Canadian Prairies, and another in the Pacific Northwest. The three troughs will continue to move east through Canada into next week, with yet another trough moving through Canada late next week and weekend. That one will likely dig deeper into the Eastern U.S. as it continues to sweep eastward early the following week. Otherwise, the ridge will be the background feature that continues into late September.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are some differences in timing and location of precipitation with each system moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will be moving through the northern tier of the country early next week and stalling a cold front again across the Corn Belt with periods of showers and thunderstorms being possible for a couple of extra days. Another system is likely to move through late next week and weekend with scattered showers and more widespread colder air, especially east of the Mississippi River. That will likely be temporary though with the ridge remaining the dominant background feature.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cold front moving through on Friday will usher in some cooler air into next week. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday and may produce more areas of widespread heavy rain. While areas in drought could use some rain, and some immature corn and soybeans still exist, many areas would like it to get dry to do fieldwork and harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers were somewhat widespread along a front that dropped through the region this week, helping to moisten soils a little while eliminating the extreme heat for a couple of days. However, temperatures will jump right back up again for the weekend as it continues to be extremely hot across the south. Another front will move in this weekend and early next week with scattered showers, with the heavier rain more likely in northern areas. It will be difficult to plant winter wheat with the continued hot and largely dry conditions for the time-being, even with those showers moving through. Too many areas are in deep drought and need lots of rain to reverse the current trends.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cold front exited the region on Thursday, but continued to produce areas of scattered showers. Pockets of heavy rain and some flooding were noted in some areas. Another front will move through this weekend with a push of much milder air. A system will form along that front and move across the north on Monday and Tuesday, leaving the front stalled out across the region for several days next week that could continue to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms. One more system is likely to move along that front late next week or weekend. While some areas could use some rain for immature corn and soybeans, it is getting very late to have a significant positive impact on this year's yields as the crop matures faster than normal in many areas. Soggier conditions could be a little troublesome for early harvest, and may impact quality in some areas if the rain is too heavy.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front is slipping down into the region that could bring more widespread showers into the weekend, but it is likely that conditions will be hotter and drier again next week. The current conditions and forecast support increasing drought. With much of the crop reaching maturity, any rainfall will not be helpful, but will be needed to raise water levels on some parts of the Mississippi River for transport. The river continues to see lower levels, though rainfall in the Midwest may help.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent heavy rain came at a poor time for grain quality and harvest. Another one moving through on Monday and Tuesday could bring more widespread moderate to heavy rain. In addition, colder air will be in place into next week as well, limiting the movement of water through soils and causing slower progress on the remaining harvest, which is already fairly well behind.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front has been producing scattered showers in southern and sometimes central Brazil this week. Another front moving in this weekend should continue those showers into early next week. Models have backed off on bringing too much rain to central Brazil, but the early showers are helpful ahead of the primary wet season, which is about three weeks away. The rain is beneficial for southern wheat and for early soybean planting where restrictions have lifted.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front is moving through Argentina on Friday, but with limited showers and another round of cold air. More frosts will be possible, especially south. While that may not have much of an impact on winter wheat that is still vegetative, it is keeping soil temperatures a bit too cold for much corn planting. And despite several fronts moving through this past winter and now spring, rainfall amounts have been largely below normal. More rain is needed for wheat growth and corn planting.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through Europe this week, but rainfall amounts have been relatively low in most places. Still, recent showers have helped to ease drought from the summer, making for better winter wheat planting and establishment conditions across the north. Some southern areas could use more rain for winter wheat planting. A few more systems will move through this weekend and next week, spreading showers across the continent. Spain may continue to see drier weather though, which may impact winter wheat planting and establishment there.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Although fronts have been frequently moving through the region, showers have been less widespread with overall below-normal amounts in many areas for the last couple of months. That largely continues through next week with a couple of systems moving through with spotty showers.

Much of the region could use some rain for good winter wheat planting and establishment, but will be hard to come by for at least a little while yet.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A couple of fronts could bring some showers to parts of southern Australia through next week, but the country is in a rather dry pattern overall. Though rain over the winter was better than expected, it is more critical now as wheat and canola get into reproductive stages.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Friday night-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near to below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday, especially north.

Temperatures above normal through Monday, near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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