Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A busy weather pattern for the northern U.S., drought growth across the southern U.S., dryness in Australia, and good planting weather in Brazil but not Argentina are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE FRONTS AND SYSTEMS BRINGING SHOWERS TO MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A cold front exited the Midwest on Thursday, but continued to produce areas of scattered showers. Pockets of heavy rain and some flooding were noted in some areas. Another front will move through this weekend with a push of much milder air. A system will form along that front and move across the north on Monday and Tuesday, leaving the front stalled out across the region for several days next week that could continue to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms. One more system is likely to move along that front late next week or weekend. While some areas could use some rain for immature corn and soybeans, it is getting very late to have a significant positive impact on this year's yields as the crop matures faster than normal in many areas. Soggier conditions could be a little troublesome for early harvest, and may impact quality in some areas if the rain is too heavy.

DROUGHT HAS BEEN GROWING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RAIN EASING DROUGHT IN CENTRAL PLAINS

Showers were somewhat widespread along a front that dropped through the Central and Southern Plains this week, helping to moisten soils a little while eliminating the extreme heat for a couple of days. However, temperatures will jump right back up again for the weekend as it continues to be extremely hot across the south. Another front will move in this weekend and early next week with scattered showers, with the heavier rain more likely in northern areas. It will be difficult to plant winter wheat with the continued hot and largely dry conditions for the time being, even with those showers moving through. Too many areas are in deep drought and need lots of rain to reverse the current trends.

MORE RAIN MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

A cold front moving through the Northern Plains on Friday will usher in some cooler air into next week. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday and may produce more areas of widespread heavy rain. While areas in drought could use some rain, and some immature corn and soybeans still exist, many areas would like it to get dry to do fieldwork and harvest.

RECENT AND FORECAST HEAVY RAIN IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IMPACTING HARVEST AND QUALITY

Recent heavy rain came at a poor time for grain quality and harvest in the Canadian Prairies. Another one moving through on Monday and Tuesday could bring more widespread moderate to heavy rain. In addition, colder air will be in place into next week as well, limiting the movement of water through soils and causing slower progress on the remaining harvest, which is already fairly well behind.

HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN DELTA LEADING TO DROUGHT GROWTH

A front is slipping down into the Delta that could bring more widespread showers into the weekend, but it is likely that conditions will be hotter and drier again next week. The current conditions and forecast support increasing drought. With much of the crop reaching toward maturity, any rainfall will not be helpful, but will be needed to raise water levels on some parts of the Mississippi River for transport. The river continues to see lower levels, though rainfall in the Midwest may help.

SPRING PLANTING IN BRAZIL STARTING WITH LARGELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

A front has been producing scattered showers in southern and sometimes central Brazil this week. Another front moving in this weekend should continue those showers into early next week. Models have backed off on bringing too much rain to central Brazil, but the early showers are helpful ahead of the primary wet season, which is about three weeks away. The rain is beneficial for southern wheat and for early soybean planting where restrictions have lifted.

ARGENTINA NEEDS SOME RAIN AND WARMTH TO START CORN PLANTING

A front is moving through Argentina on Friday, but with limited showers and another round of cold air. More frosts will be possible, especially south. While that may not have much of an impact on winter wheat that is still vegetative, it is keeping soil temperatures a bit too cold for much corn planting. And despite several fronts moving through this past winter and now spring, rainfall amounts have been largely below normal. More rain is needed for wheat growth and corn planting.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EUROPE BENEFICIAL FOR WINTER CROP PLANTING, BUT SPAIN STAYING DRY

Scattered showers have been moving through Europe this week, but rainfall amounts have been relatively low in most places. Still, recent showers have helped to ease drought from the summer, making for better winter wheat planting and establishment conditions across the north. Some southern areas could use more rain for winter wheat planting. A few more systems will move through this weekend and next week, spreading showers across the continent. Spain may continue to see drier weather though, which may impact winter wheat planting and establishment there.

ONLY LIMITED SHOWERS FOR THE BLACK SEA REGION

Although fronts have been frequently moving through the Black Sea region, showers have been less widespread with overall below-normal amounts in many areas for the last couple of months. That largely continues through next week with a couple of systems moving through with spotty showers. Much of the region could use some rain for good winter wheat planting and establishment, but will be hard to come by for at least a little while yet.

AUSTRALIA REMAINING IN RATHER DRY PATTERN

A couple of fronts could bring some showers to parts of southern Australia through next week, but the country is in a rather dry pattern overall. Though rain over the winter was better than expected, it is more critical now as wheat and canola get into reproductive stages.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA ARE DRIER AS CORN AND SOYBEANS MATURE

It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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