DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...116 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...17 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...DES MOINES, IA 4.70 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough moving through eastern Canada and another in western Canada. The western Canada trough will break into two pieces. One will continue east through Canada and the other will move into the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days. The trailing trough will move east early next week, followed by yet another trough moving through Canada for later next week and weekend. That last trough may extend through more of the eastern U.S., but models are still working that out.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are some differences in timing and location of precipitation with each system moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will be moving through the northern tier of the country early next week, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Another system is likely to move through late next week and weekend. Cooler air should develop behind both systems, though will only reach across northern areas with the first system. The cooler air could spread through more of the country behind the second one, though models are unsure about how cold and how far south that will get. Either way it will likely be temporary with the ridge still looking more dominant through the end of the month.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): While some showers may go through over the next several days, many areas will stay dry. However, another system will move through on Sunday and Monday and may produce more areas of widespread heavy rain. While areas in drought could use some rain, and some immature corn and soybeans still exist, many areas would like it to get dry to do fieldwork and harvest activities.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers continue to develop along a front that is dropping through the region, helping to moisten soils a little while eliminating the extreme heat for a couple of days. However, temperatures will jump right back up again for the weekend as it continues to be extremely hot, especially across the south. Another front will move in this weekend and early next week with scattered showers, with the heavier rain more likely in northern areas. It will be difficult to plant winter wheat with the continued hot and largely dry conditions for the time-being, even with those showers. Too many areas are in deep drought and need lots of rain to reverse the current trends.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong cold front continues to push through the region on Thursday with areas of scattered showers and milder air.

Pockets of heavy rain have developed with this front and have caused flooding in some areas. Another rise in temperatures will occur ahead of the next front moving through this weekend. Another system is forecast to move through early next week, and one more should follow for late next week or weekend. These fronts and systems should increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms. While some areas could use some rain for immature corn and soybeans, it is getting very late to have a significant positive impact on this year's yields as the crop matures faster than normal in many areas. Soggier conditions could be a little troublesome for early harvest, and may impact quality in some areas if the rain is too heavy.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): It continues to be hot with some isolated showers closer to the Gulf. A front will slip down into the region on Friday that could bring more widespread showers into the weekend, but the current conditions support increasing drought. With much of the crop reaching toward maturity, the rainfall will not be helpful, but will be needed to raise water levels on some parts of the Mississippi River for transport.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent heavy rain came at a poor time for grain quality and harvest. Multiple more systems are forecast to move through the region through next week, bringing additional precipitation to cause problems. Colder air will be in place into next week as well, limiting the movement of water through soils and causing slower progress on the remaining harvest.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS/CORN): A front has been producing scattered showers in southern and central Brazil this week. Another front moving in this weekend should continue those showers even longer. The rain is beneficial for southern wheat and for early soybean planting. Some areas in the central are awaiting the lifting of soybean planting restrictions, but are getting some decent rainfall that should prime soils for when the restrictions are lifted. The true start to the wet season may be about three weeks away, but the early rain is certainly helpful for producers.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A front will move through Argentina on Friday with limited showers and another round of cold air. More frosts will be possible, especially south. While that may not have much of an impact on winter wheat that is still vegetative, it is keeping soil temperatures too cold for much corn planting. And despite several fronts moving through this past winter and spring, rainfall amounts have been largely below normal. More rain is needed for wheat growth and corn planting.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been moving through Europe this week, but rainfall amounts have been relatively low in most places. Still, recent showers have helped to ease drought from the summer, making for better winter wheat planting and establishment conditions across the north. Some southern areas could use more rain for winter wheat planting. A few more systems will move through this weekend and next week, spreading showers across the continent. Spain may continue to see drier weather though, which may impact winter wheat there.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Although fronts have been frequently moving through the region, showers have been less widespread with overall below-normal amounts in many areas for the last couple of months. That largely continues through next week with a couple of systems moving through with spotty showers.

Much of the region could use some rain for good winter wheat planting and establishment, but will be hard to come by for at least a little while yet.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A couple of fronts could bring some showers to parts of Australia through next week, but the country is in a rather dry pattern overall. Rain is needed as more wheat and canola get into reproductive stages, but very little is in the forecast.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however, which is starting to get a bit too dry.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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