DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...111 AT MULTIPLE PLACES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA

LOW TUE...15 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUEDAY...DES MOINES, IA 1.19 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough moving through southern Canada and another moving down into western Canada. The southern Canada trough will continue to move eastward over the next few days while the western one will move south and break into two pieces. One will continue east through Canada and the other will move into the Pacific Northwest. The trailing trough will move east early next week, followed by yet another trough moving through Canada for later next week and weekend. That last trough may be a pattern changer, but models are still working that out.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are some minor differences in timing and location of precipitation with each system moving through. And they disagree about the pattern-changing trough and system that goes with it for late next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will be moving through the northern tier of the country early next week, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Another system is likely to move through late next week and weekend. Cooler air should develop behind both systems, though will only reach across northern areas with the first system. The cooler air could spread through more of the country behind the second one.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): While some showers may go through over the next several days, many areas will stay dry. However, another system will move through this weekend into Monday and may produce more areas of widespread heavy rain. While areas in drought could use some rain, and some immature corn and soybeans still exist, many areas would like it to get dry to do fieldwork and harvest activities.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Showers are forming along a front that is dropping through the region, helping to moisten soils a little while eliminating the extreme heat for a couple of days.

However, temperatures will jump right back up again for the weekend as it continues to be extremely hot and intense, especially across the south. Another front will move in this weekend and early next week with scattered showers, but mostly for northern areas. It will be difficult to plant winter wheat with the continued hot and largely dry conditions for the time-being, even with those showers. Too many areas are in deep drought and need lots of rain to reverse the current trends.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong cold front continues to push through the region over the next couple of days with areas of scattered showers and milder air. Another rise in temperatures will occur ahead of the next front moving through this weekend. And another system is forecast to move through early next week. These fronts and systems should increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms. While some areas could use some rain for immature corn and soybeans, it is getting very late to have a significant positive impact on this year's yields as the crop matures faster than normal in many areas. Soggier conditions could be a little troublesome for early harvest and may impact quality in some areas if the rain is too heavy.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): It continues to be hot with some isolated showers closer to the Gulf for the next couple of days. A front will slip down into the region on Friday that could bring more widespread showers into the weekend, but the current conditions support increasing drought. With much of the crop reaching maturity, the rainfall will not be helpful, but will be needed to raise water levels on some parts of the Mississippi River for transport.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought widespread heavy rain to the region over the weekend and into Tuesday. Though some areas could use rain for drought reduction, the rain is coming at a poor time for grain quality and harvest, which will be suffering. Multiple more systems are forecast to move through the region through next week, bringing additional precipitation to cause problems. Some models are producing areas of snow with a system that moves through next week. While that may be unlikely, it continues to follow that cold air will be on the way and make it more difficult for harvest going forward.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS): A front is stalling out and producing scattered showers in southern and central Brazil for the next few days. Another front moving in this weekend should continue those showers even longer. The rain is beneficial for southern wheat and for early planting. Some areas in the central are awaiting the lifting of soybean planting restrictions, but are getting some decent rainfall that should prime soils for when the restrictions are lifted. The true start to the wet season may be about three weeks away, but the early rain is certainly helpful for producers.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front moved through Argentina this past weekend, but was largely dry and brought through some cold air that caused areas of frosts and freezes, especially south. While this would not have caused much harm to vegetative winter wheat, it is keeping growth slow and soil temperatures too cold to start corn planting. Another front will move through on Friday with more light showers and another burst of cold air for the weekend.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to move through this week with a couple of systems, but forecast amounts are a bit low. Some southern areas could use more rain for winter wheat planting. Northern areas have been seeing better rainfall to increase soil moisture for winter wheat planting, but could be causing some issues for corn harvest.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved through the region over the weekend, bringing scattered showers. Some moderate rain fell in southwestern Russia while it was light elsewhere. Systems moving through Europe may produce some limited showers through next week, but most areas will remain dry. Much of the region could use some rain for good winter wheat planting and establishment, but will be hard to come by for at least a little while yet.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A couple of fronts could bring some showers to Western Australia late this week and weekend, but the country is in a rather dry pattern overall. Rain is needed as more wheat and canola get into reproductive stages, but very little is in the forecast.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It continues to be largely dry in central and northeast China, favorable for maturing corn and soybeans after a fairly good summer season. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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