DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough moving through southern Canada and another in the Pacific Northwest. Both troughs will move eastward through Canada and near the U.S. border over the next few days.

Another trough will move into western Canada on Thursday with part of it moving into the West and another moving through Canada through the weekend. The western trough will move east early next week. All three of the moving troughs will produce storm systems across Canada and the north that will bring fronts into the U.S. with scattered showers.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are some minor differences in timing and location of precipitation with each system moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will be moving through eastern Canada over the weekend. The front to the system will stretch from the Midwest to the High Plains and another system will develop along that front early next week, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the country. Cooler air will build in behind that front, but may not get down to the South.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...108 AT MULTIPLE PLACES IN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA

LOW MON...24 AT 19 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF OLD STATION, CA

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...BILLINGS, MT 1.37 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across much of the U.S. with a trough moving through southern Canada and another in the Pacific Northwest. Both troughs will move eastward through Canada and near the U.S. border over the next few days.

Another trough will move into western Canada on Thursday with part of it moving into the West and another moving through Canada through the weekend. The western trough will move east early next week. All three of the moving troughs will produce storm systems across Canada and the north that will bring fronts into the U.S. with scattered showers.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are some minor differences in timing and location of precipitation with each system moving through. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will be moving through eastern Canada over the weekend. The front to the system will stretch from the Midwest to the High Plains and another system will develop along that front early next week, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the country. Cooler air will build in behind that front, but may not get down to the South.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain moved through over the weekend, which may have helped to ease drought in some areas. While some showers may go through this week, many areas will stay dry. However, another system will move through this weekend into Monday and may produce more areas of widespread heavy rain. While areas in drought could use some rain, and some immature corn and soybeans still exist, many areas would like it to get dry to do fieldwork and harvest activities.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some limited areas of rain moved through over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry or saw light rain. Meanwhile, temperatures remained extremely hot, quickly advancing corn and soybeans toward maturity. Some rain fell in winter wheat areas of Nebraska and Kansas, but intense heat is quickly sapping any significant moisture from the soil. It will be difficult to plant early with the continued hot and dry conditions for the time-being, even with a couple of fronts dropping south through the region this week and next. Too many areas are in deep drought and need lots of rain to reverse the current trends.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some areas of showers and thunderstorms moved across the east and west over the weekend. Though temperatures are rising early this week, a strong cold front will push through the region mid-late week with areas of scattered showers and milder air. Another rise in temperatures will occur ahead of the next front moving through this weekend. And one more system is forecast to move through early next week. These fronts and systems should increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms. While some areas could use some rain for immature corn and soybeans, it is getting very late to have a significant positive impact on this year's yields. Soggier conditions as corn and soybeans mature could be a little troublesome for early harvest activity.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): It was hot, though some isolated showers developed across southern areas this weekend. Spotty showers will be possible the next few days before a front slips down into the region on Friday that could bring more widespread showers into the weekend. The current conditions support increasing drought, but later showers could reverse the trends if it is heavy and widespread enough. With much of the crop reaching maturity, the rainfall will not be helpful, but could be enough to raise water levels on some parts of the Mississippi River for transport.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought widespread heavy rain to the region over the weekend and continues to bring rain through on Tuesday. Though some areas could use rain for drought reduction, the rain is coming at a poor time for grain quality and harvest, which will be suffering. Another couple of systems are forecast for late this week and over the weekend that could cause additional problems.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS): A front produced scattered showers in the south and the central portions of Brazil over the weekend. With the front largely stalled out there this week, additional showers will develop and another front moving in this weekend should continue those showers even longer. The rain is beneficial for southern wheat and for early planting. Some areas in the central are awaiting the lifting of soybean planting restrictions, but are getting some decent rainfall ahead of planting that should prime soils for when the restrictions are lifted.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Another front moved through Argentina this weekend, but was largely dry and brought through some cold air that caused areas of frosts and freezes, especially south. While this would not have caused much harm to vegetative winter wheat, it keeps growing slow and soil temperatures too cold to start corn planting.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend. A couple of systems moving through this week should offer some more precipitation, but forecast amounts have dropped since last week. Some southern areas could use more rain for winter wheat planting. Northern areas are seeing better rainfall to increase soil moisture for winter wheat planting, but could be causing some issues for corn harvest.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved through the region over the weekend, bringing scattered showers. Some moderate rain fell in southwestern Russia while it was light elsewhere. Systems moving through Europe may produce some showers, but very limited rainfall is forecast, keeping most areas dry. Much of the region could use some rain for good winter wheat establishment, but will be hard to come by for at least a little while yet.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moved into Western and South Australia over the weekend, but away from the primary growing areas. That will continue to be mostly true through this week, though a couple of fronts could bring some showers to Western Australia late this week and weekend. Rain is needed as more wheat and canola get into reproductive stages, but very little is in the forecast.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was largely dry in central and northeast China over the weekend and most of the crop is going to remain dry for the next week. With the corn and soybean crop heading closer to maturity, the lack of rain should be more helpful. More rain would be beneficial for south-central areas of the country for winter wheat and canola planting, however.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers east. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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