DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...111 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX AND LA PUERTA, TX

LOW THU...24 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...YOUNGSTOWN, OH 2.33 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough moving in eastern Canada and another on the West Coast. The ridge will shift into the Plains this weekend, but could spread out next week as the western trough moves over the ridge. That trough may deepen across the East late next week and weekend with another trough developing off the West Coast again, containing the ridge in the Central U.S. This pattern may continue in a similar fashion beyond next week.

The U.S. and European models continue to have differences in the timing and location of different disturbances moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move across Canada early-mid next week, dragging a cold front across the northern half of the country, but will be unlikely to be powerful enough to go too deep to the south, stalling in the middle of the country. Some cooler air will follow behind the cold front, especially in the northeastern quadrant of the country. It should remain hot south of the front and temperatures will rise again in the Plains to end the week. Another system may go through along that front next weekend with additional showers, but models disagree on its development. A better chance exists for another system moving through Canada instead.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers, some areas of heavy rain and severe weather have occurred this week. Spotty improvement to soil moisture and drought conditions has occurred, but has not been widespread.

The pattern remains somewhat busy through next week with near-daily showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday and some additional showers likely beyond that.

Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could instead impact the remaining spring wheat harvest and reduce quality for grain still out in the field.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It will remain hot across much of the region through next week. Some showers have developed at times across the north and west, but have been rather spotty and weak for most of the week. It is likely that those types of showers will continue into next week.

This will continue to revert a lot of the region into drought growth, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has been active across the northern end of the region and remains so on Friday. It should drop south through the region this weekend with some showers across the east. A system moving across Canada is likely to bring another cold front through the region early-to-mid next week with some chances for additional showers and another front that may not make it all the way through the region before stalling out. Some cooler air is likely to move in north of the front, but it should remain hot south of it.

The hot temperatures and lack of rain across the south will stress the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but push other areas further into maturity. Northern areas may be seeing some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have too much of a positive impact on yields as we get deeper into September.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It will remain very hot and mostly dry for much of the region through next week, with a few spotty showers closer to the Gulf. That will push soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stress out any of the crop that is not yet mature, reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The region will be the target of a couple more systems through next week, producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms and potential for more areas of heavy rain. That is unfavorable for harvest and may produce quality issues for mature grain out in the field.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS): A front spread some isolated showers into central Brazil earlier this week, well ahead of the primary wet season, which occurs at the end of the month. Another front will sweep through the country this weekend and we could see another later next week. Any priming showers would be beneficial for soybean planting, as well as for reproductive wheat across the south. Southern areas have seen plenty of rain over the last couple of months, which will allow for soybean planting to begin in earnest once restrictions are lifted.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Fronts continue to push through Argentina, but aren't bringing many showers. The south has been particularly dry. The country needs rain in the short term for winter wheat. In the longer term, rain is needed for corn and then soybean planting, but that is several weeks ahead. Not much precipitation is in the forecast despite several systems moving through. Colder air could cause areas of frost across the south yet, which is unfavorable even if wheat is still vegetative.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been moving across northern Europe this week, and continue into the weekend. More showers will be possible across the continent with a couple of systems moving through next week. That should help to moisten soils across southern areas that have been drier lately, too.

Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but is much too late to be beneficial for this year's crop and may affect harvest to some degree. However, with winter crop planting starting this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial for establishment.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. A front will sweep through this weekend with areas of showers, but not a lot of heavy rain. Some areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable. Next week looks to be drier as well.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some southern areas have been scraped by showers this week. But the drier El Nino pattern is likely to continue, unfavorable as winter wheat and canola get deeper into their reproductive stages over the next couple of weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas this summer, largely supporting good grain production. Though a few showers may go through, it should be drier through next week as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete. But so far, it appears the active storms will stay away from the primary corn and soybean areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday, mostly north. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday, north and west. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday, near normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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