DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...109 AT LA PUERTA, TX, RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX, AND ZAPATA, TX

LOW WED...26 AT AUSTIN, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...HARRISBURG, PA 1.03 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough moving over the top of it in eastern Canada and another on the West Coast. The ridge remains will shift more into the Plains this weekend, but could spread out next week as the western trough moves over the ridge. That trough may deepen across the East late next week and weekend with another trough developing off the West Coast again, containing the ridge in the Central U.S.

The U.S. and European models continue to have differences in the timing and location of different disturbances moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will get pushed down into the northern U.S. this weekend and early next week. It is likely that a system will develop along that front early next week, bringing potential for heavy rain and severe weather. There may be another system doing something similar later in the week. Temperatures north of the front may still be a bit on the warm side, but southern areas should stay quite hot for the first half of September.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern remains somewhat busy for this week and next with near-daily showers and thunderstorms somewhere in the Northern Plains. That may mean better rain chances, but not necessarily heavier amounts that would help to reduce drought, at least not in all areas.

Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could instead impact the remaining spring wheat harvest and reduce quality for grain still out in the field.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It will remain hot across much of the region through next week. A front waffling around and just north of Nebraska may produce some areas of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend while another front could get some showers going next week. Areas near the Rockies could also see occasional showers, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Edouard continue to bring a concentrated burst of heavy rain to eastern Texas on Thursday. But much of the Southern Plains will be dry. This will continue to revert a lot of the region into drought growth, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front remains across the northern end of the region and continues to be active for the rest of the week. It should drop south through the region this weekend with some showers across the east.

Another front is likely to settle across northern areas with another system developing along it to produce more rain next week. South of these fronts, temperatures will be quite warm, stressing the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but pushing other areas further into maturity. Northern areas could see some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have too much of a positive impact on yields as we get deeper into September.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It will remain very hot and mostly dry for much of the region through next week, with a few spotty showers closer to the Gulf. That will push soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stress out any of the crop that is not yet mature, reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The region will be the target of a couple more systems through next week, producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms and potential for more areas of heavy rain. That is unfavorable for harvest and may produce quality issues for mature grain out in the field.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS): A front spread some isolated showers into central Brazil earlier this week, well ahead of the primary wet season, which occurs at the end of the month. Another front will sweep through the country this weekend and we could see another next week. Any priming showers would be beneficial for soybean planting, and for reproductive wheat across the south. Southern areas have seen plenty of rain over the last couple of months, which will allow for soybean planting to begin in earnest once restrictions are lifted.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Fronts continue to push through Argentina, but aren't bringing many showers. The south has been particularly dry. The country needs rain in the short term for winter wheat. In the longer term, rain is needed for corn and then soybean planting, but that is several weeks ahead. Not much precipitation is in the forecast despite several systems moving through. Colder air could cause areas of frost across the south yet, which is unfavorable even if wheat is still vegetative.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been moving across northern Europe this week, and continue into the weekend. More showers will be possible across the continent with a couple of systems moving through next week. Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but is much too late to be beneficial for this year's crop. However, with winter crop planting starting this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial for establishment.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. The weather pattern is very active in Europe, which will send a front through this weekend with sweeping showers, but not a lot of heavy rain. Some areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some southern areas may be scraped by showers over the next couple of days, but the drier El Nino pattern is likely to continue, unfavorable as winter wheat and canola get deeper into their reproductive stages over the next couple of weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas this summer, largely supporting good grain production. It should be drier both through next week as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete, but so far, it appears much of the active storms will stay away from the primary corn and soybean areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday, mostly north. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday, north and west. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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