DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT LA PUERTA, TX AND RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...26 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUEDAY...HARTFORD, CT 1.30 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough moving over the top of it in southern Canada and another off the West Coast. The ridge remains stuck in the same spot for the next couple of days, but will shift more into the Plains this weekend. Models now spread the ridge back toward the east next week. The western trough will keep sending energy over the top of the ridge, and probably move over the ridge later next week, which may shift the pattern up a bit.

The U.S. and European models have differences in the timing and location of different disturbances moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will get pushed down into the northern U.S. this weekend and early next week. It is likely that a system will develop along that front, bringing potential for heavy rain and severe weather. There may be another system doing something similar later in the week. Temperatures north of the front may still be a bit on the warm side, but southern areas should stay quite hot for the first half of September.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern remains somewhat busy for this week and next with near daily showers and thunderstorms somewhere in the Northern Plains. That may mean better rain chances, but not necessarily heavier amounts that would help to reduce drought, at least not in all areas.

Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could impact the remaining spring wheat harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It will remain hot across much of the region throughout the week. A front waffling around and just north of Nebraska may produce some areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Areas near the Rockies could also see occasional showers, and a small tropical storm will bring a concentrated burst of rain to eastern Texas through Thursday. But much of the Southern Plains will be dry. This will continue to revert a lot of the region into drought growth, especially south, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front remains across the northern end of the region and continues to be active for most of the week. It should drop south through the region this weekend with some showers across the east. Another front is likely to settle across northern areas this weekend into next week, which could see another system developing along it to produce more rain. South of these fronts, temperatures will be quite warm, stressing the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but pushing other areas further into maturity. Northern areas could see some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have too much of a positive impact on yields as we get deeper into September.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It will remain very hot and mostly dry for much of the region this week, with a few spotty showers closer to the Gulf. That will push soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stress out any of the crop that is not yet mature; reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas of heavy rain moved over the Prairies this weekend and early this week, unfavorable for harvest and possibly producing quality issues for mature grain out in the field. The region will be the target of a couple more systems through next week, producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms and potential for more areas of heavy rain.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS): A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and has pushed northward into central Brazil where some areas of spotty showers have developed well ahead of the primary wet season, which occurs at the end of the month. Any priming showers would be beneficial for soybean planting, and for reproductive wheat across the south. Southern areas have seen plenty of rain over the last couple of months, which will allow for soybean planting to begin in earnest once restrictions are lifted.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Fronts continue to push through the country, but aren't bringing many showers. The south has been particularly dry. The country needs rain in the short term for winter wheat. In the longer term, rain is needed for corn and then soybean planting, but that is several weeks ahead. Not much precipitation is in the forecast despite several systems moving through.

Colder air could cause areas of frost across the south yet, which is unfavorable even if wheat is still vegetative.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to move across Europe this week, mostly across the north. Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but way too late to be beneficial for this year's crop.

However, with winter crop planting starting up later this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial. The pattern may stay active next week as well, though those prospects are a bit uncertain.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through the week. A front moving through this weekend could bring through more sweeping showers, but not a lot of heavy rain. Some areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some southern areas may be scraped by showers this week, but the drier El Nino pattern is likely to continue, unfavorable as winter wheat and canola get deeper into their reproductive stages over the next couple of weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas this summer, largely supporting good grain production. It should be a bit drier both this week and next as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north and west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday, north and west. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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