DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...110 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...20 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MCKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...ROCHESTER, NY 1.14 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central and East with a trough moving over the top of it in southern Canada and another off the West Coast. The ridge will be stuck in the same spot throughout the week but have a tendency to shift west into the Plains this weekend and maybe farther west next week. The western trough will keep sending energy over the top of the ridge, keeping the north very active for the first half of September.

The U.S. and European models have differences in the timing and location of different disturbances moving through next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system is likely to move through Canada over the weekend, pushing a front down into the northern U.S. If another system can develop along that front, there could be some heavy rain and severe weather for northern areas into early next week. There may be another system doing something similar later in the week. Temperatures north of the front may still be a bit on the warm side, but southern areas should stay quite hot for the first half of September.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern should be somewhat busy for this week and next with near daily showers and thunderstorms. That may mean better rain chances, but not necessarily heavier amounts that would help to reduce drought, at least not in all areas. Time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact on corn and soybean yields and could impact the continued spring wheat harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It will remain hot across much of the region throughout the week. A front waffling around and just north of Nebraska may be a constant feature this week, producing some areas of showers and thunderstorms. Areas near the Rockies could also see occasional showers, and a small tropical storm will bring a concentrated burst of rain to eastern Texas through Thursday, but much of the Southern Plains will be dry. This will continue to revert a lot of the region into drought growth, especially south, making for poorer conditions for any immature crop or any thoughts about early winter wheat planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front remains across the northern end of the region that should be active for most of the week. It should drop south through the region this weekend with some showers across the east. Another front is likely to settle across northern areas this weekend into next week.

South of these fronts, temperatures will be quite warm, stressing the remaining immature corn and soybean crops, but pushing other areas further into maturity.

Northern areas could see some beneficial precipitation, but it is getting a bit too late to have too much of a positive impact on yields.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It will remain very hot and mostly dry for much of the region this week, with a few spotty showers closer to the Gulf. That will push soybeans and cotton toward maturity and stress out any of the crop that is not yet mature; reversing last week's rainfall pattern and returning the momentum toward growing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A pair of systems moved through over the weekend and brought scattered showers and some areas of heavy rain, unfavorable for harvest and producing quality issues for mature grain out in the field. The region will be the target of a couple more systems through next week, both producing areas of scattered showers and thunderstorms and potential for more areas of heavy rain.

BRAZIL (WHEAT/SOYBEANS): A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend and will push northward into central Brazil where some areas of showers may develop well ahead of the primary wet season, which is about a month away. Any priming showers would be beneficial for soybean planting, and for reproductive wheat across the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A front pushed out of the country and into southern Brazil over the weekend, but didn't bring many showers. Much of the country has been rather dry over the last few months and needs rain in the short term for winter wheat. In the longer term, that rain is needed for corn and soybean planting, but that is several weeks ahead.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to move across Europe this week, mostly across the north. Recent rainfall has helped to ease drought problems in some areas, but way too late to be beneficial for this year's crop.

However, with winter crop planting starting up later this month, the rainfall will be more beneficial. The pattern may stay active next week as well, though those prospects are a bit uncertain.

BLACK SEA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through the week. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some southern areas may be scraped by showers this week, but the drier El Nino pattern is likely to continue, unfavorable as winter wheat and canola become reproductive over the next couple of weeks.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been frequent in the primary corn and soybean areas this summer, largely supporting good grain production. It should be a bit drier this week as the crop starts to enter the maturing stages in largely good condition. The tropics are becoming more active and will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Spotty showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, mostly north.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north and west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, mostly north.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday, mostly north. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, below normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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