DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Plains with a trough moving in the East and another off the West Coast. The eastern trough will move out over the weekend.

And at the same time, the western trough will move over the ridge into early next week, pushing the ridge more toward the south and east where it will spread out. With another trough redeveloping on the West Coast, active weather should develop across the northern edge of the ridge for early September.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Several fronts and systems will be poised to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for the northern half of the country next week in the active pattern setup. Heavy rain and severe weather will be watched going into the new month and could be a regular pattern for much of September.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...120 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW WED...32 AT 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...AMARILLO, TX 1.78 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Plains with a trough moving in the East and another off the West Coast. The eastern trough will move out over the weekend.

And at the same time, the western trough will move over the ridge into early next week, pushing the ridge more toward the south and east where it will spread out. With another trough redeveloping on the West Coast, active weather should develop across the northern edge of the ridge for early September.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Several fronts and systems will be poised to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for the northern half of the country next week in the active pattern setup. Heavy rain and severe weather will be watched going into the new month and could be a regular pattern for much of September.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region is drier for another day, but that should change drastically with a system moving through on Friday and Saturday that will be the start of near-daily showers and thunderstorms into early September. Some areas have been very dry for quite a long time, so these chances for rain need to pay off or yield potential will continue to decrease. But we will have to watch out for severe weather and the risk of flooding if the rain becomes too consistent. The rain could impact the ongoing wheat harvest as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will produce another day of showers across the south and especially the west, which is suppressing high temperatures for a couple of days. Otherwise, heat will continue to be a problem for the south as it builds in this weekend and expands to more areas as well. More fronts are forecast this weekend and next week as well, but are likely to stall and produce showers across the north compared to the south, which will trend drier yet again.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is exiting on Thursday after producing some isolated showers this week. But not many areas saw much rain.

After a couple of dry days, the weather pattern will become quite active starting this weekend as several systems will develop and move across the region through a good chunk of September. That will need to be watched to see if additional flooding and severe weather move through again. At the same time, heat will be building across the south and some warmer days are ahead going into the new month. That could stress the immature crop, but for the portion nearing maturity, the heat will move that along rather quickly if the rain doesn't move in with it.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Showers have been more widespread across the region this week, helping to ease building drought conditions in some areas. A few more showers are forecast for Thursday before starting to get quieter again.

Temperatures will be rising next week as a ridge settles in. The pattern should also be drier, which will return the region toward building drought. For immature crops, the recent rain is helpful, but the coming heat and dryness is unfavorable. For the portion of the crop nearing maturity, the conditions will help to push that along. But cotton still needs some time in some areas and should see conditions worsening again.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Another system will move through on Friday with another pulse through the weekend with more scattered showers. And the pattern may feature a couple more systems next week as well. Most of the region would prefer it to be warmer and drier, which would help the remaining immature crop into maturity and allow for better conditions for harvest. While temperatures should be warmer overall, the rain will be somewhat of a hindrance.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Showers have been frequent across the south for the last couple of months, favorable for developing winter wheat and for moistening soils ahead of spring planting. Another front will move into the south over the next couple of days that should bring some more favorable rainfall into early next week.

That front may continue northward into central Brazil with some early showers ahead of the wet season. Fronts could start to do that before the daily showers begin in about a month. Looking far ahead, the strengthening El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It has been cold across the country recently, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. However, the lack of significant rainfall is a little more concerning as wheat growth starts to accelerate over the next month. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions will be possible. A couple of systems could bring some scattered showers for the rest of this week and weekend, but the prospect for heavy rain is low for wheat areas.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to move through the continent into a portion of next week, including some areas of heavy rain. That is much too late for this season's crops as it was too hot and dry for too long to provide any real benefit to corn, spring wheat, or other small grains. And instead, it could disrupt the harvest and lower quality in some areas. However, it should start to prime soils for winter crop planting, which will start to occur over the next few weeks.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through next week. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through eastern areas earlier this week, bringing through some rather widespread moderate rainfall.

Another front has brought showers into western areas over the next couple of days, but it will not reach the east. The pattern is looking to return to a drier one heading into September, which is unfavorable as wheat and canola become reproductive.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across the primary corn and soybean areas, maintaining good soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans. The tropics are becoming more active and Typhoon Saudel will move into central China just north of Taiwan early Friday. As long as that track doesn't change, the primary corn and soybean acres will be spared yet again from heavy rainfall. But these tropical systems will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, especially north.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday, especially north. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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