DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...122 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...30 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...JACKSONVILLE, FL 1.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Plains with a trough moving through the Great Lakes and another off the West Coast. The western trough will eventually move over the ridge this weekend into early next week, pushing the ridge more toward the south where it will spread out. Meanwhile, active weather should develop across the northern edge of the ridge for early September.

The U.S. and European models are similar, and trended warmer again for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Several fronts and systems will be poised to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms for the northern half of the country next week in the active pattern setup. Heavy rain and severe weather will be watched going into the new month.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region is drier the next couple of days, but that should change drastically with a system moving through on Friday and Saturday that will be the start of near-daily showers and thunderstorms into early September. Some areas have been very dry for quite a long time, so these chances for rain need to pay off or yield potential will continue to decrease.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated to scattered showers have continued to develop in the Central and Southern Plains since the weekend. However, it has been, and continues to be, extremely hot across Texas and Oklahoma and drought continues to deepen and expand. A front will produce another day or two of showers, which may suppress high temperatures for a couple of days, otherwise heat will continue to be a problem for the south.

More fronts are forecast this weekend and next week as well, but are likely to stall and produce showers across the north compared to the south, which will trend drier yet again.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is moving through on Wednesday and into Thursday, but the coverage of showers is likely to remain low. For some of the wet areas in Illinois and Indiana, the lack of showers would be more favorable, but areas across the north and south would like to see the rain.

Temperatures will generally remain mild this week, but will be increasing for next week, especially across the south. That will set up a very active pattern across the region similar to the one from two weeks ago that produced heavy rain and severe weather. That will need to be watched to see if additional flooding and severe weather move through again in early September.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Showers were more widespread across the region over the weekend and again on Monday, producing some flooding in some areas of Arkansas. A front will remain in the region for the next couple of days that could produce more rain. Drought has been expanding quickly over the last several weeks and the rain is much needed. Temperatures will still remain above normal throughout the week despite the front, especially across the south, so the rainfall will be important for filling soybeans and cotton. Temperatures next week are expected again to be well above normal while the focus for rain shifts northward again, an unfavorable way to end the season for immature crops.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought scattered showers over the last few days, but has left. Another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more scattered showers and the pattern may feature a couple more systems next week as well. Most of the region would prefer it to be warmer and drier, which would help the remaining immature crop into maturity and allow for better conditions for harvest. While temperatures should be warmer overall, the rain will be somewhat of a hindrance.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Showers have been frequent across the south for the last couple of months, favorable for developing winter wheat and for moistening soils ahead of spring planting. Another front will move into the south over the next couple of days that should bring some more favorable rainfall into early next week.

That front may continue northward into central Brazil with some early showers ahead of the wet season. Fronts could start to do that before the daily showers begin in about a month. Looking far ahead, the strengthening El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It has been cold across the country recently, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. However, the lack of significant rainfall is a little more concerning as wheat growth starts to accelerate over the next month. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions will be possible. A couple of systems could bring some scattered showers for the rest of this week and weekend, but the prospect for heavy rain is low for wheat areas.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to move through this week and through at least a portion of next week, including some areas of heavy rain.

That is much too late for this season's crops as it was too hot and dry for too long to provide any real benefit to corn, spring wheat, or other small grains.

However, it should start to prime soils for winter crop planting, which will start to occur over the next few weeks.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west through next week. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through eastern areas on Monday and Tuesday, bringing through some rather widespread moderate rainfall.

Another front is bringing showers into western areas over the next couple of days, but it will not reach the east. Overall, soil moisture has been falling for a lot of the country's wheat belt, unfavorable for developing wheat and canola as they start to become reproductive over the next few weeks. September rainfall will be very important for crop prospects, but it is expected to be drier than normal with the building El Nino in the Pacific.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across the primary corn and soybean areas, maintaining good soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans. The tropics are becoming more active and Typhoon Saudel will move into central China just north of Taiwan early Friday. As long as that track doesn't change, the primary corn and soybean acres will be spared yet again from heavy rainfall. But these tropical systems will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers far south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Sunday, especially north. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday, especially north. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers south Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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