Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another front moving across the U.S. with scattered showers, more systems moving through this weekend and next week, scattered showers in the Canadian Prairies, and dryness problems in the Black Sea region are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST NEXT TWO DAYS, MORE RAIN NEXT WEEK

A front will move through the Midwest over the next couple of days, but the coverage of showers is likely to be low. For some of the wet areas in Illinois and Indiana, the lack of showers is more favorable, but areas across the north and south would like to see the rain. Temperatures will generally remain mild this week. A couple of systems will move through this weekend and next week, which could bring more substantial rain, creating mixed conditions for filling corn and soybeans.

AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Isolated to scattered showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, which included parts of Oklahoma and Texas. However, it has been, and continues to be, extremely hot across both states and drought continues to deepen and expand. Several fronts will slip through the region this week, which may suppress high temperatures for a couple of days; otherwise, heat will continue to be a problem for the south. More fronts are forecast this weekend and next week as well. Northern areas are more likely to see substantial rain than across the south, though.

PERIOD OF DRYNESS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT SHORT-LIVED

Isolated showers moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend and again on Monday. There should be some drier time during the middle of the week before another system moves through late this week and weekend. Additional systems are forecast to move through next week. Some areas have been very dry for quite a long time, so these chances for rain need to pay off, or yield potential will continue to decrease.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES DODGING SHOWERS AS HARVEST PICKS UP

A system moving through the Canadian Prairies brought scattered showers over the last couple of days and is moving out on Tuesday. Temperatures should be mild to warm this week, favorable for maturing crops. Some across the north that are still immature could use some heat to move the crop along and use some of the wetter soils. Harvest conditions will generally be favorable, though they'll be dodging showers moving across the region through next week.

STALLED FRONT BRINGING NEEDED RAIN TO PARTS OF THE DELTA

Showers were more widespread across the Delta over the weekend and again on Monday, producing some flooding in some areas of Arkansas. A front will remain in the region throughout the week that could produce more rain. Drought had been expanding quickly over the last several weeks and the rain is much needed. Temperatures will still remain above normal throughout the week despite the front, especially across the south, so the rainfall will be important for filling soybeans and cotton.

BUSY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EUROPE IS TOO LATE FOR THIS YEAR, BETTER FOR NEXT YEAR

Scattered showers moved through Europe over the weekend and a couple of systems moving through this week should bring through some areas of heavy rain. That is much too late for this season's crops as it was too hot and dry for too long to provide any real benefit to corn, spring wheat, or other small grains. However, it could start to prime soils for winter crop planting, which will start to occur over the next few weeks.

INCREASING DRYNESS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia has seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

RAIN MOVING THROUGH AUSTRALIA THIS WEEK DURING DRIER PATTERN

Some showers went through eastern Australia on Monday and are exiting on Tuesday, bringing through some rather widespread moderate rainfall. Another front should move into western areas with showers this week, but it will likely stay drier across the east for the rest of this week and possibly all of next week as well. Overall, soil moisture has been falling for a lot of the country's wheat belt, unfavorable for developing wheat and canola as they start to become reproductive over the next few weeks. September rainfall will be very important for crop prospects, but it is expected to be drier than normal with the building El Nino in the Pacific.

CHINA WATCHING FOR TYPHOONS TO UPSET FAVORABLE SEASON

Scattered showers continued to fall across the primary corn and soybean areas in China this weekend, maintaining good soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans. The tropics are becoming more active and Typhoon Saudel will move into central China just north of Taiwan in a couple of days. As long as that track doesn't change, the primary corn and soybean acres will be spared yet again from heavy rainfall. But these tropical systems will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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