DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...119 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...29 AT STANLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...LITTLE ROCK, AR 1.83 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Plains with a trough in the East, another off the West Coast, and one more going through the Canadian Prairies. Though the troughs will move around this week, the ridge will remain pretty firm. The western trough will eventually move over the ridge this weekend into early next week, pushing the ridge more toward the south as the pattern gets more active across the north for early September.

The U.S. and European models are similar, and trended warmer again for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through country this weekend into early next week, perhaps in a couple of pulses. And another system is likely to move across the north mid-late next week. All of which should create plenty of scattered showers and thunderstorms and variable temperatures. Southern areas are still expected to remain very warm through next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers moved through over the weekend and again on Monday. There should be some drier time during the middle of the week before another system moves through late this week and weekend. Additional systems are forecast to move through next week. Some areas have been very dry for quite a long time, so these chances for rain need to pay off or yield potential will continue to decrease.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated to scattered showers moved through over the weekend, which included parts of Oklahoma and Texas as well. However, it has been, and continues to be, extremely hot across both states and drought continues to deepen and expand. Several fronts will slip through the region this week, which may suppress high temperatures for a couple of days, otherwise heat will continue to be a problem for the south.

More fronts are forecast this weekend and next week as well. Northern areas are more likely to see substantial rain than across the south, though.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through over the next couple of days, but the coverage of showers is likely to be low. For some of the wet areas in Illinois and Indiana, the lack of showers would be more favorable, but areas across the north and south would like to see the rain.

Temperatures will generally remain mild this week. A couple of systems will move through this weekend and next week, which could bring more substantial rain, creating mixed conditions for filling corn and soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Showers were more widespread across the region over the weekend and again on Monday, producing some flooding in some areas of Arkansas. A front will remain in the region throughout the week that could produce more rain. Drought has been expanding quickly over the last several weeks and the rain is much needed. Temperatures will still remain above normal throughout the week despite the front, especially across the south, so the rainfall will be important for filling soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moving through the region brought scattered showers over the last couple of days and is moving out on Tuesday. Temperatures should be mild to warm this week, favorable for maturing crops. Some across the north that are still immature could use some heat to move the crops along and use some of the wetter soils. Harvest conditions will generally be favorable, though they'll be dodging showers moving across the region through next week.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Showers have been frequent across the south for the last couple of months, favorable for developing winter wheat and for moistening soils ahead of spring planting. Another front will move into the south later this week that should bring some more favorable rainfall into early next week. That front may continue northward into central Brazil with some early showers ahead of the wet season. Fronts could start to do that before the daily showers begin in about a month. Looking far ahead, the strengthening El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It has been cold across the country recently, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. However, the lack of significant rainfall is a little more concerning as the wheat growth starts to accelerate over the next month. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions will be possible. A couple of systems could bring some scattered showers this week, but the prospect for heavy rain is low for wheat areas.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and a couple of systems moving through this week should bring through some areas of heavy rain. That is much too late for this season's crops as it was too hot and dry for too long to provide any real benefit to corn, spring wheat, or other small grains. However, it could start to prime soils for winter crop planting, which will start to occur over the next few weeks.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Much of eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia have seen limited rainfall and above-normal temperatures to end the summer, as crop conditions have been slowly falling. Though the weather pattern is very active in Europe, that is not true for the Black Sea region, which is largely expected to stay dry outside of the far north and west. Those areas could see some beneficial rainfall ahead of winter planting, while it remains drier in southwestern Russia, which would be unfavorable.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers went through eastern areas on Monday and are exiting on Tuesday, bringing through some rather widespread moderate rainfall. Another front should move into western areas with showers this week, but it will likely stay drier across the east for the rest of this week and possibly all of next week as well. Overall, soil moisture has been falling for a lot of the country's wheat belt, unfavorable for developing wheat and canola as they start to become reproductive over the next few weeks.

September rainfall will be very important for crop prospects, but it is expected to be drier than normal with the building El Nino in the Pacific.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continued to fall across the primary corn and soybean areas this weekend, maintaining good soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans. The tropics are becoming more active and Typhoon Saudel will move into central China just north of Taiwan in a couple of days. As long as that track doesn't change, the primary corn and soybean acres will be spared yet again from heavy rainfall. But these tropical systems will need to be watched until harvest is complete.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal north and above normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday, especially north. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers north Wednesday. Scattered showers south Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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