DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough moving out of eastern Canada.

Another is moving southeast through central Canada and yet another is off the West Coast. With the central Canadian trough moving down into the East this weekend, we should have a relatively stable pattern of trough-ridge-trough across North America through next week. With disturbances moving from the western trough over the ridge into the eastern trough, we should get somewhat active weather out of it as well.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar, and trended warmer for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through country early-to-mid next week with scattered showers and some milder air moving down through the East. One more system may go through Canada late next week with showers into the U.S. going into the weekend. Temperatures should remain warmer out in the Plains and West.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...121 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...32 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...COLOMBUS, OH 3.87 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with a trough moving out of eastern Canada.

Another is moving southeast through central Canada and yet another is off the West Coast. With the central Canadian trough moving down into the East this weekend, we should have a relatively stable pattern of trough-ridge-trough across North America through next week. With disturbances moving from the western trough over the ridge into the eastern trough, we should get somewhat active weather out of it as well.

The U.S. and European models are similar, and trended warmer for next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through country early-to-mid next week with scattered showers and some milder air moving down through the East. One more system may go through Canada late next week with showers into the U.S. going into the weekend. Temperatures should remain warmer out in the Plains and West.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of isolated showers have been moving through the region lately, but have missed some key areas.

Some locations in the eastern Dakotas have been very dry for a long time, where conditions should continue to drop even though temperatures have been cooler.

There are still be many chances for rain through the end of the month, but if showers do not adequately reach the eastern Dakotas, there could be more significant production drops. That is especially true if temperatures rise above normal.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been favoring Nebraska and Kansas this week, and sometimes included Oklahoma, but have been patchy. It continues to be extremely hot in the south and doesn't look to change there anytime soon. A couple of fronts will attempt to drift south through this weekend and next week, which may bring areas of showers, though northern areas are still more likely to see anything significant.

Temperatures will remain hot across Oklahoma and Texas regardless of the fronts, with more variable temperatures farther north. The variability results in more showers for next week as well, but will be difficult to get much down south to Oklahoma or Texas. Therefore, conditions are likely to be variable across the north and worsening across the south.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions in the north contrast with very wet conditions from Iowa to Ohio. That was exacerbated on Wednesday as a front brought some heavy rain to parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio that had seen flooding last week. It was more beneficial in the south, though. Another system will move through Friday and Saturday with more showers, and we are likely to see another system move through in the middle of next week with more potential showers. The additional rain in some of these wet areas is not favorable, but could be more beneficial for some of the drier areas in both the north and south. Temperatures will stay mild through next week and may tend to go below normal on a few days.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It has been too hot and dry lately, leading to flash drought conditions. A front will move through over the next couple of days and more showers will be possible this weekend into early next week, but models are not very excited about producing much rain. The heat has been unfortunate as well and even though temperatures should be falling with the fronts moving through, it will still stay largely above normal into next week, creating more stress for filling soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Disturbances and fronts continue to bring through occasional showers through next week, but with a low probability of heavy rain. That should help areas that are farther along to mature while areas that are still immature get a little rain to fill out. Temperatures have been increasing this week and may stay warm through next week, helping the more advanced areas to continue maturing. Harvest conditions so far are largely favorable.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Fronts have been frequently bringing scattered showers across the south, favorable for wheat and moistening soils ahead of spring planting. It will be drier next week, but many areas there are in good shape while central Brazil awaits the start of the wet season more than a month away. Looking far ahead, the strengthening El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It has been cold across the country this week, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. Northern areas have seen some rain this week while the south has been left out for quite some time over the winter. That is unfavorable for wheat as it continues to develop. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions will be possible. The pattern should produce a couple of systems for the end of August, but the shower potential for southern areas is uncertain.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): The extreme heat is over except in the southeast. Scattered showers are increasing across most of the continent as the pattern gets much more active, but it is too late for most areas as it has been much too hot and dry this summer, especially around France. The recent rain this week and what falls in the weeks ahead will help to prime soils for winter wheat and grain planting, however.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A system moved through this week and another will move through this weekend, but rain has been targeting western and far northern areas. Eastern areas of Ukraine and southwestern Russia will stay largely dry as crop conditions continue to slowly fall for the end of summer, especially with temperatures well above normal this week. Some milder air will follow behind the system for next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some disruptions to a largely drier pattern have occurred over the last couple of months, but they have not been able to turn the tide away from growing drought. Models are grabbing onto some better amounts for some eastern areas early next week, though. And another system should move through the country mid-late next week. With winter wheat and canola getting farther along as we head toward spring, precipitation will start to become much more important, especially getting into September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The primary corn and soybean areas have been able to dodge flooding rains and have had largely favorable conditions over the summer. Periods of showers will continue to develop through next week, continuing the favorable conditions for both crops as they fill.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday, especially north.

Temperatures near to above normal north and above normal south through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Monday, near normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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