DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...120 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...31 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...KANSAS CITY, MO 3.42 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge expanding in the West with a trough moving through eastern Canada. Another trough is off the West Coast. The Canadian trough is strong as it slowly moves east through the country for the next couple of days. It will get some reinforcements that will build into the Eastern U.S. this weekend and again next week. The ridge will continue to build across the Rockies and drift into the Plains as the western trough pushes toward the West Coast this weekend. This should become a little bit of a stable pattern through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar, though the GFS is more stout with the ridge in the Plains next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through country early-to-mid next week with scattered showers and some cooler air moving down through the East. One more system may go through Canada late next week with showers into the U.S. going into the weekend. Temperatures should remain warmer out in the Plains and West.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of isolated showers have been moving through the region lately, but have missed some key areas. Some locations in the eastern Dakotas have been very dry for a long time, where conditions should continue to drop even though temperatures have been cooler. There are still many chances for rain through the end of the month, but if showers do not adequately reach the eastern Dakotas, there could be more significant production drops. That is especially true if temperatures rise above normal.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been favoring Nebraska and Kansas this week, but have been patchy. Meanwhile, it continues to be extremely hot in the south. A couple of fronts will attempt to drift south through the region this week and weekend, which may bring areas of showers, though northern areas are still more likely to see anything significant. Temperatures will remain hot across Oklahoma and Texas regardless of the fronts, with more variable temperatures farther north. The variability results in more showers for next week as well, but will be hard to get down south to Oklahoma or Texas. Therefore, conditions are likely to be variable across the north and worsening across the south.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions in the north and far south are juxtaposed with very wet conditions from Iowa to Ohio. That was exacerbated on Wednesday as a front brought some heavy rain to parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio that had seen flooding last week. It was more beneficial in the south, though. Another system will move through Thursday through Saturday with more showers, and we are likely to see another system move through early- to mid-next week. The additional rain in some of these wet areas is not favorable, but could be more beneficial for some of the drier areas in both the north and south. Temperatures will stay mild through next week and may tend to go below normal on a few days.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It has been too hot and dry lately, leading to flash drought conditions. A front will move through over the next couple of days and more showers will be possible this weekend, but models are not very excited about producing much rain. The heat has been unfortunate as well and even though temperatures should be falling with the fronts moving through, it will still stay largely above normal into next week, creating more stress for filling soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Disturbances and fronts continue to bring through occasional showers through next week, but with a low probability of heavy rain. That should help areas that are farther along to mature while areas that are still immature get a little rain to fill out. Temperatures have been increasing this week and may stay warm through next week, helping the more advanced areas to continue maturing. Harvest conditions so far are quite favorable.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Fronts have been frequently bringing scattered showers across the south, favorable for wheat and moistening soils ahead of spring planting. Another front should bring through some more showers on Thursday. Looking far ahead, the strengthening El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be cold across the country this week, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. Northern areas have seen some rain this week while the south has been left out for quite some time over the winter. That is unfavorable for wheat as it continues to develop. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions will be possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): The extreme heat is over except in the southeast. Scattered showers are increasing across most of the continent as the pattern gets much more active, but it is too late for most areas as it has been much too hot and dry this summer, especially around France. The recent rain this week and what falls in the weeks ahead will help to prime soils for winter wheat and grain planting, however.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A couple of systems will move through this week, but rain has been targeting western and far northern areas. Eastern areas of Ukraine and southwestern Russia will stay largely dry as crop conditions continue to slowly fall for the end of summer, especially with temperatures well above normal this week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some disruptions to a largely drier pattern have occurred over the last couple of months, but they have not been able to turn the tide away from growing drought. Models are grabbing onto some better amounts for some eastern areas early next week, though. With winter wheat and canola getting farther along as we head toward spring, precipitation will start to become much more important, especially getting into September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The primary corn and soybean areas have been able to dodge flooding rains and have had largely favorable conditions over the summer. Periods of showers will continue to develop through next week, continuing the favorable conditions for both crops as they fill.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday, especially north.

Temperatures near to above normal north and above normal south through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers far south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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