DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...119 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW TUE...32 AT 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...LINCOLN, NE 1.07 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the South with a trough moving through central and eastern Canada. Another trough is off the West Coast. The Canadian trough is strong as it slowly moves east through the country for the next couple of days.

It will get some reinforcements that will build into the Eastern U.S. this weekend and again next week. In response, the ridge will build across the Rockies and drift into the Plains as the western trough pushes toward the West Coast this weekend. This should become a little bit of a stable pattern through the end of the month.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which is capturing the potential for cooler air in the East better.

A system will move through country early- to mid-next week with scattered showers and some cooler air moving down through the East. One more system may go through Canada late next week with showers into the U.S. going into the weekend. Temperatures should remain warmer out in the Plains and West.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of isolated showers have been moving through the region lately, but have missed some key areas.

Some locations in the eastern Dakotas have been very dry for a long time, where conditions should continue to drop even though temperatures have been cooler.

There are still many chances for rain through the end of the month, but if showers do not adequately reach the eastern Dakotas, there could be more significant production drops. That is especially true as temperatures rise above normal.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers again moved across Nebraska and Kansas, but were patchy on Tuesday. Meanwhile, it continues to be extremely hot in the south. A couple of fronts will be drifting south through the region this week and weekend, which may bring areas of showers, though northern areas are more likely to see anything significant.

Temperatures will remain hot across Oklahoma and Texas regardless of the fronts, with more variable temperatures farther north. Heat will likely build in this weekend and be tough to shake next week, even if the pattern can stay as active as the forecast suggests. Therefore, conditions are likely to be variable across the north and worsening across the south.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions in the north and far south are juxtaposed with very wet conditions from Iowa to Ohio. A front moving through the region on Wednesday may produce some unneeded rain across some of the wet areas, especially in Illinois and Indiana, before bringing some more beneficial rain to the south for Thursday. Another system will move through Thursday through Saturday with more showers, and we are likely to see another system move through early- to mid-next week. The additional rain in some of these wet areas is not favorable, but could be more beneficial for some of these drier areas. Temperatures will stay mild through next week and may tend to go below normal on a few days.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It has been too hot and dry lately, leading to flash drought conditions. Even a front moving through early this week could barely produce a shower. Another front will move through over the next couple of days with more showers being possible this weekend, but models are not very excited about producing much rain. The heat has been unfortunate as well and even though temperatures should be falling with the fronts moving through, it will still stay largely above normal into next week, creating more stress for filling soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Several disturbances and fronts will move through with scattered showers through next week, but with a low probability of heavy rain until maybe next weekend. That should help areas that are farther along to mature while areas that are still immature to get a little rain to fill out. Temperatures will generally be increasing this week and stay warm next week, helping the more advanced areas to continue maturing.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Fronts have been frequently bringing scattered showers across the south, favorable for wheat and moistening soils ahead of spring planting.

Another front should bring through some more showers over the next couple of days. Looking far ahead, the strengthening El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be cold across the country through this week, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. Northern areas should continue to see some rain for the next day or two while the south has been left out of the rainfall for quite some time over the winter. That is unfavorable for wheat as it continues to develop. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions will be possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat left the continent over the weekend as scattered showers moved through, but hot and dry conditions have been a problem all summer, especially for areas around France. Additional rounds of showers will move through with cooler weather this week, but are largely too late to provide much benefit. Southeastern areas will remain extremely hot.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A couple of systems will move through this week, but with rain targeting western areas and being limited overall anyway. Eastern areas of Ukraine and western Russia will stay largely dry as crop conditions continue to slowly fall for the end of summer, especially with temperatures becoming more stressful this week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some disruptions to a largely drier pattern have occurred over the last couple of months, but they have not been able to turn the tide away from growing drought. That continues this week as a couple of disturbances move through with limited precipitation. Models are grabbing onto some better amounts for some eastern areas early next week, though. With winter wheat and canola getting farther along as we head toward spring, precipitation will start to become much more important, especially getting into September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The primary corn and soybean areas have been able to dodge flooding rains and have had largely favorable conditions over the summer.

Periods of showers will continue to develop this week and next, continuing the favorable conditions for both crops as they fill.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, especially north.

Temperatures near normal north and above normal south through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers far south Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.