DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the South with a trough moving through central Canada.

Another trough is off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will be strong as it slowly moves east through the country throughout the week. It will get some reinforcements that will stick around the eastern U.S. this weekend into next week. The ridge will be maintained throughout the week, but have a tendency to build across the Rockies at the same time the reinforcing trough moves in. As the eastern trough slowly slides eastward and the West Coast trough moves east as well, that will push a portion of the ridge through the Plains this weekend, and will attempt to stay there into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the Midwest to the East Coast this weekend.

Another system will move through the northern tier of the country Sunday through the middle of next week with scattered showers as well. One more system may go through Canada late next week with showers into the U.S. going into the weekend. Temperatures will be above-normal in the West and Plains and milder in the Midwest, though some waffling will be possible between systems.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...117 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...31 AT 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...PUEBLO, CO 1.73 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the South with a trough moving through central Canada.

Another trough is off the West Coast. The Canadian trough will be strong as it slowly moves east through the country throughout the week. It will get some reinforcements that will stick around the eastern U.S. this weekend into next week. The ridge will be maintained throughout the week, but have a tendency to build across the Rockies at the same time the reinforcing trough moves in. As the eastern trough slowly slides eastward and the West Coast trough moves east as well, that will push a portion of the ridge through the Plains this weekend, and will attempt to stay there into next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move through the Midwest to the East Coast this weekend.

Another system will move through the northern tier of the country on Sunday through the middle of next week with scattered showers as well. One more system may go through Canada late next week with showers into the U.S. going into the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal in the West and Plains and milder in the Midwest, though some waffling will be possible between systems.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers moved through this weekend and again on Monday, but many areas stayed dry. Some locations in the eastern Dakotas have been very dry for a long time, where conditions should continue to drop even though temperatures have been cooler. There are still many chances for rain through the end of the month, but if showers do not adequately reach the eastern Dakotas, there could be more significant production drops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through northern areas over the weekend while it was extremely hot in the south. A cluster of thunderstorms did go through northern Oklahoma on Monday, though. A couple of fronts will be drifting south through the region this week and weekend, which may bring areas of showers, though northern areas are more likely to see anything significant. Temperatures will remain hot across Oklahoma and Texas regardless of the fronts, with more variable temperatures farther north. Heat will likely build in this weekend and be tough to shake next week, even if the pattern can stay as active as the forecast suggests. Therefore, conditions are likely to be variable across the north and worsening across the south.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas from Iowa through Ohio have seen some incredibly heavy rain over the last week, causing flood damage, especially in Illinois and Indiana. Far southern areas, like southern Missouri and southern Illinois have been largely hot and dry for the past week, which is also likely to limit production. Meanwhile across the north, precipitation has been light or missing and soil moisture continues to fall. So outside of some lucky areas that have seen good rainfall without flooding or severe weather, conditions are poorer. The pattern remains active this week, though systems should be passing through with scattered showers instead of lingering with heavy rain for too many areas. But additional rain in central Illinois and Indiana that is forecast is not favorable. This could be more favorable across the far north and south, however.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It has been too hot and dry lately, leading to flash drought conditions. A couple of fronts will push down through the region this week, which may bring some scattered showers and limit the overall heat, at least by the end of the week. Still, temperatures should remain above normal, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers passed through much of the region over the weekend, with some favorably heavy rain in Manitoba.

Several disturbances and fronts will move through with scattered showers this week, but with a low probability of heavy rain. That should help areas that are farther along to mature while areas that are still immature get a little rain to fill out. Temperatures will generally be increasing this week and stay warm next week, helping the more advanced areas to continue maturing.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Another front went through over the weekend with scattered showers across the south, which has been a frequent pattern lately, favorable for wheat and moistening soils ahead of spring planting. Another front should bring through some more showers later this week. The strengthening El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be cold across the country through this week, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. Northern areas should continue to see some rain while the south has been left out of the rainfall for quite some time over the winter. That is unfavorable for wheat as it continues to develop. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions will be possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat left the continent over the weekend as scattered showers moved through. The showers were too light to have any significant impact on drought in western countries, but were a little more favorable for portions of the east that could use some rain. Additional rounds of showers will move through with cooler weather this week. Southeastern areas will remain extremely hot, however. The rain comes too late to provide much of a benefit after an incredibly hot and dry summer across France and adjacent areas.

BLACK SEA (CORN): It was dry over the weekend with increasing temperatures. A couple of systems will move through this week, but with rain targeting western areas. Eastern areas of Ukraine and western Russia will stay largely dry as crop conditions continue to slowly fall for the end of summer, especially with temperatures becoming more stressful this week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was dry over the weekend, a pattern that has been largely in place for the last couple of months. Some disruptions to the drier pattern have occurred, they just have not been able to turn the tide away from growing drought. That continues this week as a couple of fronts and systems move through, but with limited precipitation. With winter wheat and canola getting farther along as we head toward spring, precipitation will start to become much more important, especially getting into September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Extremely heavy rain fell in central China last week due to a stalling tropical system, but only hit the outskirts of the primary corn and soybean growing areas on the North China Plain. Instead, some dryness over the last week has been a little disappointing. However, there will be many chances for rain this week as corn and soybeans fill in largely good condition.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, especially north.

Temperatures near normal north and above normal south through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers far south through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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