DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...113 AT MEDICINE LODGE, KS

LOW THU...35 AT 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF FINLAND, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...DES MOINES, IA 2.38 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in eastern Canada and a ridge in the South. Another trough is in the West in multiple pieces. The ridge will remain stout through next week. The Canadian trough will leave briefly this weekend but return next week.

The western trough will send most of its energy over the ridge this weekend, but another will form off the West Coast for next week, likely sending more energy into and over the ridge. This keeps the weather pattern fairly active through at least all of next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are struggling with how thunderstorm complexes will develop. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front and system will move into the Corn Belt for Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing periods of showers through the end of the week. The details on this front are still uncertain. Despite some of the uncertainty, temperatures should be largely mild across the north but hot across the south.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been moving through the Northern Plains this week and chances for more clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible through next week. Models are doing a poor job at capturing the actual rain potential, which has actually been higher but less widespread than models suggest this week. The rain that does fall should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could miss some key areas, like the Red River Valley, and will need to be watched.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures remain hot, though a front has been waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas with some milder temperatures. The heat has aided in thunderstorm development, which continues through the weekend. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture where they hit, primarily across the north, while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This overall pattern may continue through next week as another front drops down into Nebraska on Tuesday or Wednesday.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Severe storms and heavy rain have been moving through this week, including a potential derecho across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana on Tuesday. It has also resulted in flooding in spots from Iowa to Kentucky. The setup continues to favor clusters of thunderstorms moving through the region almost continuously through the weekend. Another front will move in toward the middle of next week and may return to the active pattern similar to this week. These chances for rain will not hit all locations, and spots across Missouri and southern Illinois are likely to remain hotter and drier through next week, which would cause stress.

Northern areas may not see as much rain either, but will be milder. Severe weather will continue to be watched as wind or hail damage at this stage of development would be catastrophic. Some reports of which have been making the rounds on social media this week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It has largely been dry this week with extreme heat and humidity, a pattern that will largely continue with some outside chances for rain early and late next week. The lack of good rainfall is leading to quickly worsening soil moisture, a stressful situation for filling cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been falling in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan for much of the week, areas that needed to see some rain. Showers will spread through more of the region for Friday and into Saturday. Additional showers are likely to return next week. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable for immature crops. Some improvements to crop conditions are likely as we finish out the primary growing season this month. We will have to watch out for some frost potential over the next week, but chances are low.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Several fronts waffling about southern Brazil will continue to produce rainfall into next week, overall favorable for vegetative winter wheat.

Wheat should be developing into its reproductive stages over the next few weeks, largely in good condition. The rain is helping to moisten soils ahead of the soybean planting season which starts next month. The strengthening El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be cold across the country, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. The pattern remains active across the country, which will lead to reinforcing cold shots through next week, keeping growth slow. Despite this, chances for rain are limited in the primary wheat areas. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions will be possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, and was in place again this week. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. A front will bring in some showers to much of the continent over the weekend, breaking the heat. More showers will go through during the middle of next week and may start to turn into more of an active pattern for the rest of the month. However, it is already too late for much of the corn in France and the surrounding areas after the extreme heat from this summer. But some areas in lesser stress could see some improvements if the forecast pans out.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A front that moved through on Wednesday is bringing in some cooler air, but showers have been and continue to be very limited. Temperatures will rise next week and create more stress as rainfall will be largely absent until the middle of next week. The slow progression toward drier conditions to end the summer could have some impact on corn and sunflower production in the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Despite some rain moving through last week and weekend, Australia continues to be in an overall dry trend thanks to the developing El Nino. A couple of disturbances could still bring through some showers next week, but the overall pattern continues to be drier. With winter wheat and canola becoming reproductive over the next few weeks, the dryness is concerning if it continues to persist into September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The remnants of Typhoon Dolphin have produced heavy rain in central China this week, but it has been falling on the outskirts of the primary corn and soybean growing areas on the North China Plain. Some damage may have occurred due to flooding, but the effects are likely minimal. Overall, conditions have been favorable for a lot of the corn and soybean growing areas this season, though we could see some heat returning next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday, especially north.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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