DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There remains a trough in eastern Canada and a ridge in the South. Another trough is in the West in multiple pieces. The ridge will remain stout through next week. The Canadian trough will leave briefly this weekend but return next week. The western trough will do something similar. This keeps the weather pattern fairly active through at least all of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are struggling with how thunderstorm complexes will develop. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front may push through the Southeast with some scattered showers early next week, but another front and system will move into the Corn Belt for Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing periods of showers through the end of the week. The details on this front are still uncertain. Despite some of the uncertainty, temperatures should be largely mild across the north but hot across the south.

A few warm days between systems across the north will be possible as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...115 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...33 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...LEXINGTON, KY 2.76 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There remains a trough in eastern Canada and a ridge in the South. Another trough is in the West in multiple pieces. The ridge will remain stout through next week. The Canadian trough will leave briefly this weekend but return next week. The western trough will do something similar. This keeps the weather pattern fairly active through at least all of next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar, but are struggling with how thunderstorm complexes will develop. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front may push through the Southeast with some scattered showers early next week, but another front and system will move into the Corn Belt for Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing periods of showers through the end of the week. The details on this front are still uncertain. Despite some of the uncertainty, temperatures should be largely mild across the north but hot across the south.

A few warm days between systems across the north will be possible as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have been moving through the Northern Plains this week and chances for more clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible through next week. Models are doing a poor job at capturing the actual rain potential, which has actually been higher but less widespread than models suggest this week. The rain that does fall should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could miss some key areas and will need to be watched. The best chance for widespread rain occurs with a system passing through on Thursday into Saturday.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures remain hot, though a front will be waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas with some milder temperatures. The heat will aid in thunderstorm development, especially with a system riding along the front on Thursday and another going through on Saturday. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture where they hit, primarily across the north, while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This overall pattern may continue through next week as another front drops down into Nebraska on Tuesday or Wednesday.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Severe storms and heavy rain have been moving through this week, including a potential derecho across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana on Tuesday. It has also resulted in flooding in eastern Indiana and western Ohio down into Kentucky. The setup continues to favor clusters of thunderstorms moving through the region almost continuously through the weekend. Another front will move in toward the middle of next week and may return to the active pattern similar to this week. These chances for rain will not hit all locations, and spots across Missouri and southern Illinois are likely to remain hotter and drier through next week, which would cause stress. Northern areas may not see as much rain either, but will be milder. Severe weather will continue to be watched as wind or hail damage at this stage of development would be catastrophic. Some reports of which have been making the rounds on social media this week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): It has largely been dry this week with extreme heat and humidity, a pattern that will largely continue through next week. The lack of good rainfall is leading to quickly worsening soil moisture, a stressful situation for filling cotton and soybeans.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been falling in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, an area that needed to see some rain.

Showers will be possible there on Thursday, which would be very beneficial, before spreading through more of the region for Friday and into Saturday.

Additional showers are likely to return next week. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable. Some improvements to crop conditions are likely as we finish out the primary growing season this month.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Several fronts waffling about southern Brazil will continue to produce rainfall into next week, overall favorable for vegetative winter wheat.

Wheat should be developing into its reproductive stages over the next few weeks, largely in good condition. The rain is helping to moisten soils ahead of the soybean planting season which starts next month. El Nino is largely unfavorable for central Brazil, which could impact both soybean and corn production in the coming year.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be cold across the country, though frosts should not be damaging as winter wheat is still vegetative. The pattern remains active across the country, which will lead to reinforcing cold shots through next week, keeping growth slow. Despite this, chances for rain are limited in the primary wheat areas. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth next month, yield reductions will be possible.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, and was in place again this week. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. A front will bring in some showers to much of the continent over the weekend, breaking the heat. More showers will go through during the middle of next week. It is already too late for much of the corn in France and the surrounding areas after the extreme heat from this summer, but some areas in lesser stress could see some improvements if the forecast pans out.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A front that moved through on Wednesday is bringing in some cooler air, but showers have been and continue to be very limited. Temperatures will rise next week and create more stress as rainfall will be largely absent until maybe late next week. The slow progression toward drier conditions to end the summer could have some impact on corn and sunflower production in the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Despite some rain moving through last week and weekend, Australia continues to be in an overall dry trend thanks to the developing El Nino. A couple of disturbances could still bring through some showers next week, but the overall pattern continues to be drier. With winter wheat and canola becoming reproductive over the next few weeks, the dryness is concerning if it continues to persist into September.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): The remnants of Typhoon Dolphin have been sitting in central China all of this week, but the heavy rain has been falling on the outskirts of the primary corn and soybean growing areas on the North China Plains. Some damage may have occurred due to flooding, but the effects are likely minimal. Heavy rain will still be possible through Friday before the remnant low moves off the coast. Overall, conditions have been favorable for a lot of the corn and soybean growing areas this season, though we could see some heat returning next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday, especially north.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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