Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather across the Corn Belt with heavy rain and severe weather, but lingering dryness issues and nearby heat, rain in the southern Canadian Prairies, and yet continued heat in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

MORE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER, FLOODING, AND OVERALL MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

Severe storms and heavy rain have been moving through the Midwest this week, including a potential derecho across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana on Tuesday. It has also resulted in extensive flooding in eastern Indiana and western Ohio down into Kentucky. The setup continues to favor clusters of thunderstorms moving through the region almost continuously through the weekend. Another front will move in toward the middle of next week and may return to the active pattern similar to this week. These chances for rain will not hit all locations, and spots across Missouri and southern Illinois are likely to remain hotter and drier through next week, which would cause stress. Northern areas may not see as much rain either, but will be milder. Severe weather will continue to be watched as wind or hail damage at this stage of development would be catastrophic. Some reports of which have been making the rounds on social media this week.

RAIN IN CENTRAL PLAINS, EXTREME HEAT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE

Temperatures remain hot across the Southern Plains, though a front will be waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas with some milder temperatures. The heat will aid in thunderstorm development, especially with a system riding along the front on Thursday and another going through on Saturday. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture where they hit, primarily across Nebraska, while southern areas will remain hotter and drier, including much of Kansas. This overall pattern may continue through next week as another front drops down into Nebraska on Tuesday or Wednesday.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers have been moving through the Northern Plains this week and chances for more clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible through next week. Models are doing a poor job at capturing the actual rain potential, which has actually been higher but less widespread than models suggest this week. The rain that does fall should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could miss some key areas and will need to be watched. The best chance for widespread rain occurs with a system passing through on Thursday into Saturday.

RAIN FOR DRIER SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers have been falling in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, an area that needed to see some rain. Showers will be possible there on Thursday, which would be very beneficial, before spreading through more of the region for Friday and into Saturday. Additional showers are likely to return next week. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable. Some improvements to crop conditions are likely as we finish out the primary growing season this month.

HEAT WITH INCREASING DROUGHT IN THE DELTA

It has largely been dry in the Delta this week with extreme heat and humidity, a pattern that will largely continue through next week. The lack of good rainfall is leading to quickly worsening soil moisture, a stressful situation for filling cotton and soybeans.

HEAT ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE BREAKS THIS WEEKEND

Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, and were in place again this week. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. A front will bring in some showers to much of the continent over the weekend, breaking the heat. More showers will go through during the middle of next week. It is already too late for much of the corn in France and the surrounding areas after the extreme heat from this summer, but some areas in lesser stress could see some improvements if the forecast pans out.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES BUT LIMITED RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A front that moved through the Black Sea region on Wednesday is bringing in some cooler air, but showers have been and continue to be very limited. Temperatures will rise next week and create more stress as rainfall will be largely absent until maybe late next week. The slow progression toward drier conditions to end the summer could have some impact on corn and sunflower production in the region.

DESPITE RECENT RAIN, AUSTRALIA STILL IN DRIER PATTERN

Despite some rain moving through last week and weekend, Australia continues to be in an overall dry trend thanks to the developing El Nino. A couple of disturbances could still bring through some showers next week, but the overall pattern continues to be drier. With winter wheat and canola becoming reproductive over the next few weeks, the dryness is concerning if it continues to persist into September.

REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN SOAKING CENTRAL CHINA

The remnants of Typhoon Dolphin have been sitting in central China all of this week, but the heavy rain has been falling on the outskirts of the primary corn and soybean growing areas on the North China Plains. Some damage may have occurred due to flooding, but the effects are likely minimal. Heavy rain will still be possible through Friday before the remnant low moves off the coast. Overall, conditions have been favorable for a lot of the corn and soybean growing areas this season, though we could see some heat returning next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.