Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather across the Corn Belt with heavy rain and severe weather, but lingering dryness issues and nearby heat, rain in the southern Canadian Prairies, and yet more heat in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, SEVERE WEATHER, AND OVERALL MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

Severe storms and heavy rain moved through the Midwest on Tuesday, which may be labeled as a derecho across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana, where wind gusts of over 80 mph were recorded in several locations. The setup continues to favor clusters of thunderstorms moving through the region almost continuously through the weekend. Another front will move in toward the middle of next week and may return to the active pattern similar to this week. These chances for rain will not hit all locations, and spots across Missouri and southern Illinois are likely to remain hotter and drier through next week, which would cause stress. Temperatures will be milder across the north, but could see some warmth before next week's front settles in as well. Severe weather will continue to be watched as wind or hail damage at this stage of development would be catastrophic.

RAIN IN CENTRAL PLAINS, EXTREME HEAT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE

Temperatures will remain hot for most areas of the Central and Southern Plains this week, though a front will be waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas with some milder temperatures. The heat will aid in thunderstorm development, especially with a system riding along the front on Thursday and another going through on Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture where they hit, primarily across the north, while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This overall pattern may continue through next week.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS

Strong thunderstorms moved through the Dakotas on Tuesday, bringing some needed rain, but also large hail and strong winds. Many chances for clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible through next week, but models are likely doing a poor job of capturing the actual rain potential. Regardless, the rain that does fall should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could be scattered and miss some key areas and will need to be watched. The best chance for widespread rain occurs with a system passing through on Thursday and Friday.

RAIN FOR DRIER SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved into southern Alberta on Tuesday, an area that needs to see some rain. Showers will be possible there and across southern Saskatchewan for the next few days, which would be very beneficial. Areas of showers will go through the rest of the region as well. Additional showers are likely to return next week. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable. Some improvements to crop conditions are likely as we finish out the primary growing season this month.

LIMITED SHOWERS AND HEAT IN THE DELTA

Spotty showers may be possible in the Delta for the rest of the week and next week, but it will be very hot and mostly dry. The lack of good rainfall is leading to quickly worsening soil moisture, a stressful situation for filling cotton and soybeans.

HEAT ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE BREAKS THIS WEEKEND

Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, a pattern that continues this week. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. A front will bring in some showers to much of the continent over the weekend, with the heat backing off next week. Another system early to mid next week could also bring through some beneficial showers to many areas. It is already much too late for much of the corn in France and the surrounding areas after the extreme heat from this summer, but some areas in lesser stress could see some improvements if the forecast pans out.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES BUT LIMITED RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

A front moving through the Black Sea region on Wednesday will bring in some cooler air, but showers have been and continue to be very limited. Temperatures will rise next week and create more stress as rainfall will be largely absent until maybe late next week. The slow progression toward drier conditions to end the summer could have some impact on corn and sunflower production in the region.

DESPITE RECENT RAIN, AUSTRALIA STILL IN DRIER PATTERN

Despite some rain moving through last week and weekend, Australia continues to be in an overall dry trend thanks to the developing El Nino. A couple of disturbances could still bring through some showers next week, but the overall pattern continues to be drier. With winter wheat and canola becoming reproductive over the next few weeks, the dryness is concerning if it continues to persist into September.

REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN SOAKING CENTRAL CHINA

The remnants of Typhoon Dolphin are sitting in central China for the rest of the week and will continue to bring areas of heavy rain to some corn and soybean areas on the North China Plain, leading to flood damage. So far, the heaviest rains have been a touch too far south to cause much damage, but that could increase through the end of the week. If that rain ends up being too heavy, there could be disruption to an otherwise favorable pattern this year.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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