Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Active weather across the Corn Belt, but lingering dryness issues and nearby heat, rain in the southern Canadian Prairies, and yet more heat in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

ROUNDS OF RAIN AND OVERALL MILD TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEST

Scattered showers moved through the Midwest over the weekend and over the east on Monday, bringing some needed rainfall to some areas while others remained unfortunately drier. The setup for this week favors daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through this weekend and quite likely into next week as well, but these chances need to hit to maintain soil moisture for filling corn and soybeans. Temperatures will be mild in general, but a stalled front in the south could mean higher temperatures across areas like Missouri and the Ohio Valley. If these areas pick up some good moisture, they could deal with the heat. But if they remain dry, then stress could continue to mount.

RAIN IN CENTRAL PLAINS, EXTREME HEAT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

Temperatures will remain hot for most of the Central and especially Southern Plains this week, though a front will be waffling around Nebraska and nearby areas. That will aid in thunderstorm development at various points throughout the week, especially with a system riding along the front on Thursday and another going through on Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers are likely to ease stress and build some soil moisture across the north while southern areas will remain hotter and drier. This pattern may continue through next week.

PERIODS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

Many chances for clusters of showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Northern Plains through next week, but models are likely doing a poor job of capturing the actual rain potential. Regardless, the rain that does fall should aid in some easement of stress that has been expanding over the last month or so. However, storms could be scattered and miss some key areas and will need to be watched. The best chance for widespread rain occurs with a system passing through on Thursday and Friday.

RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR DRIER SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers went through Alberta over the weekend and Monday, which was beneficial, with some spotty showers elsewhere. Areas of showers will go through the region each day this week, which may favor some of the drier areas in the south. Temperatures will be mild, which will also be favorable. If showers are too isolated, then there could continue to be areas of stress and falling conditions. But if the showers are more widespread, there could be some significant improvements.

LIMITED SHOWERS AND HEAT IN THE DELTA

Spotty showers will be possible in the Delta each day this week while temperatures will be hot. The lack of good rainfall is leading to quickly worsening soil moisture, a stressful situation for filling cotton and soybeans.

CONTINUED HEAT ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Extreme heat and little rainfall have plagued western Europe all summer long, a pattern that continues this week as well. Eastern areas have had more disruption to the heat, including periods of rain, but conditions have been degrading there this summer as well. More days of above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall will continue the process.

VARIABLE TEMPERATURES BUT LIMITED RAIN IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Some isolated showers went through the Black Sea region over the weekend and Monday, but most areas remained dry. A front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the forecast is only calling for limited rainfall. Though temperatures will fall behind the cold front, they should rise again next week. The lack of rain is causing conditions to worsen for filling corn.

DESPITE RECENT RAIN, AUSTRALIA STILL IN DRIER PATTERN

Areas of heavy rain fell over southeastern Australia over the weekend, reversing the recent drier trend in the region and improving conditions for winter wheat and canola. A couple of fronts and disturbances will move through this week, but opportunities for additional rainfall are lower. So despite the recent improvements, the overall trend is still toward lower precipitation amounts as crops become reproductive this month and next.

REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN SOAKING CENTRAL CHINA

The remnants of Typhoon Dolphin are sitting in central China for the rest of the week, bringing heavy rain to some corn and soybean areas on the North China Plain, leading to flood damage. If those happen to be in some of the primary corn and soybean areas, there could be massive disruption to an otherwise favorable pattern this year.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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