DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...122 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...17 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...OMAHA, NE 2.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is across the central U.S. with a ridge building into the West while another ridge is along the East Coast. By this weekend, the western ridge will finally nudge the trough in the central U.S. to the east. However, the trough will still linger into the Great Lakes and lead to systems moving through the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be above average across much of the West and the Central and Southern Plains this weekend into early next week.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which has been better with the cooler air this summer. Eventually, a ridge will extend over the West and Plains later next week while a trough is in the East. Storm systems could still traverse through the Corn Belt and temperatures could be a few degrees below average.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures start rebounding into the 90s on Thursday after a brief break in the heat earlier this week.

Showers and storms will be spotty and light throughout the rest of the week, but some swaths of heavier rain could develop late this weekend into next week.

Precipitation deficits remain high and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): The eastern half of Nebraska and Kansas saw rain earlier this week with the tail end of a cold front drifting through the Central Plains. Most of the heaviest precipitation will miss the Southern Plains and by next week, a ridge will lend to a drier and warmer pattern for the region. However, storms could still edge into the Central Plains at times. Rain may come just in time to benefit reproductive corn in northern areas but it may be too late in the south, where early harvest will start up at the end of the month.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some slight relief to the recent heat will continue through the end of the week behind a slow-moving cold front which will move through the Ohio Valley Thursday and Friday. This week's milder air and recent rainfall will bring improving conditions for some, but for areas south of this week's front, conditions could be warmer and dry. Next week could feature warmer and drier conditions for southern areas, but storm systems could still tag the north. A few more shots of widespread rain would be beneficial for filling soybeans and reproductive corn.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Spotty showers have led to worsening conditions for cotton and soybeans. Late this week, isolated showers and storms will return across the region, but model guidance is agreeing that heavy rain will likely not be widespread. A similar pattern may set up for next week with only isolated showers across the region. Any additional rain may be too late for maturing corn and soybeans with early harvest starting up at the end of the month.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up. Widespread showers may not return until Sunday across the southwest as most storm systems continue to favor northern and eastern areas late this week. Cooler temperatures will linger in the southern Prairies through early next week, but more heat would help the rate of growth. As showers become more hit or miss, soil moisture is dropping for some areas.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Showers will continue to favor southern Brazil going into next week, beneficial for vegetative wheat. Central Brazil will be drier, typical for this time of the year. The strong El Nino could lead to drier conditions persisting into the late spring across central areas, which would be a bad start to the growing season for corn and soybeans.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have mainly favored northeast Argentina earlier this week, but a larger system could provide widespread showers to central areas Thursday. This weekend into next week, a strong area of high pressure will build across much of Argentina and lead to drier conditions once again. If precipitation amounts don't pick up as wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth, yield reductions are possible. There is also a slight risk for temperatures dropping near freezing next week, mainly across Buenos Aires.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Spotty showers are expected to target central and eastern Europe through the end of the week. Heat will continue across central and eastern areas as well. Temperatures will cool off slightly in the west and with precipitation remaining farther to the east, harvest progress could continue for wheat. Filling corn in the east could benefit from this week's rain, but for areas that get missed, above-average temperatures could cause stress.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Showers will pick up across western areas on Friday as a cold front works through with some of the heaviest rain favoring Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania. By Sunday and into early next week, heavier showers will target southwest Russia and the Caucasus. For areas that get missed with showers over the coming days, heat could cause increased stress. Temperatures may not return closer to average until early next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions are becoming more common with the increasing El Nino while most showers earlier this week have favored western areas. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. Widespread, heavier showers will develop across the southeast this weekend but precipitation could become much more hit or miss next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers may start to become more isolated across central and northeastern China late this week into next week. This isn't a major concern as recent rainfall has led to largely favorable conditions for corn and soybeans. Typhoon Dolphin will make landfall in southeast China this weekend and lead to heavy rain south of Shanghai. Remnants of Dolphin could linger into central China through much of next week, potentially causing some areas of flooding.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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