DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...119 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA, AND 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ

LOW THU...34 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...BRIDGEPORT, CT 1.07 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with troughs on the East Coast, one in the North Pacific, and another moving through the Midwest. The Midwest trough will deepen as it moves into the Southeast for the weekend where it will sit into early next week. The Pacific trough will pinch off a portion of the western ridge as both features will move east this weekend and next week. With the trough moving through Canada, that will allow the western ridge to spread through move of the U.S. next week, pushing the Southeast trough offshore. A reinforcement to the Canadian trough may be possible next weekend, which models are only starting to account for.

The U.S. and European models are similar. I will use a blend but favor the GFS, which has been better with the cooler air this summer.

Showers will move off the Southeast coast in the middle of next week. A front will be pushing through the northern tier of the country in a couple of bursts, which will bring potential for scattered showers and cooler temperatures across northern areas through next weekend. South of the front though, temperatures will be increasing throughout the week and may become quite stressful if it isn't accompanied by rainfall as the current forecast shows.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): High temperatures and limited precipitation have become normal for this summer, causing stress to all crops.

However, a system brought widespread rain to the Dakotas on Thursday with some cooler air. Though temperatures will rise this weekend, a strong cold front will push through on Monday, bringing through a burst of cool air for most of next week. Some showers will be possible along the front, but models do not have widespread heavy rain. Though precipitation was good, deficits are very large and more rain is needed for reproductive to filling crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front in the Central Plains along with a system moving through the Northern Plains have combined to produce widespread showers across Nebraska and Colorado the last few days. That system is leaving to the east with scattered showers across Kansas down into Texas for Friday. Some milder air is moving in behind the system for the weekend, but temperatures will be increasing again next week.

However, a front will also be pushing into the Central Plains again on Tuesday.

Some areas of showers and mild air will be found on the northern end of the region while it will get increasingly hot and dry across the south. The waffling between hot and dry and cool and wet across the north is creating mixed conditions while the general hot and dry south is seeing more stress developing.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through the region through the weekend and is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms to combat recent dryness and increasing drought coverage. It is also bringing in some milder air to the whole region. In addition, another cold front will move into the region next week in a couple of bursts, which will be a factor in producing more areas of showers and bring some mild temperatures. With some follow-up rain, some areas will see improving conditions, but areas to the south of the front are likely to return to hotter and drier conditions that could make the situation worse. Crop conditions have been falling the last couple of weeks and more rain and milder temperatures are needed to stabilize during filling corn and soybeans heading in August.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front stalled in the region and continues to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms into Saturday. Any rainfall will be welcomed, but has been spotty. If the rain remains limited as forecast, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans. Temperatures are forecast to increase next week and may cause more stress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Though it has been hotter and drier over the last couple of weeks, that has helped to increase the rate of growth for much of the region. Most areas have been able to deal with this warmth because of good soil moisture, but that is dropping. Areas in the southwest have been too hot and dry, where stress is starting to show up. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down for next week, but is not forecast to bring much precipitation with it.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Scattered showers have been frequent over southern Brazil lately and continue to be fairly widespread through next week, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Despite many systems and fronts moving through lately, precipitation has been hard to come by. That continues through next week with several more chances for precipitation moving through. Despite all the chances, showers are again expected to be limited, hitting only some lucky areas with needed rainfall. This could become a problem in another month or so if precipitation amounts don't pick up and wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Yet another heatwave is settling across Europe this week, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for eastern areas that had better conditions. Any showers will be very limited through the middle of next week, when a front moving through should bring temperatures down and may come with some helpful rain. It is possible that western areas still see above-normal temperatures and limited rain, however, continuing to stress corn.

BLACK SEA (CORN): A system moved through this week, producing widespread showers. These showers were not as heavy across the south, which was somewhat disappointing for some corn and sunflower areas. As this system leaves, heat will build into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress, especially across the drier south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though some showers may scrape across the south through the weekend, drier conditions have become more common with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west may be a break in the pattern next week, bringing through some scattered showers to the east by next weekend, but the drier pattern remains.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China through next week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing. The country will also be watching the path of Super Typhoon Dolphin as it may move in next weekend.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Sunday, near normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal northwest and near to above normal southeast Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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