DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...120 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW TUE...32 AT 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...HARTFORD, CT 1.97 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with troughs in the East and North Pacific. A piece of the North Pacific trough will move over the ridge in a couple of days and deepen more in the Midwest and then the Southeast, pushing the ridge a bit farther back to the West. However, the northern end of the ridge will attempt to push back east again this weekend into early next week.

At the same time, the Pacific trough will move through Canada for next week, which will cause the ridge to spread through more of the U.S. and kick out the eastern trough. The strongest part of the ridge will still be in the West, however.

The U.S. and European models are similar with the overall picture but have differences in where and how much precipitation to produce. I will use a blend but favor the European, which is more generous with the precipitation across the Corn Belt.

Some showers and milder air will continue in the Southeast early next week.

Warmer air in the West will also spread through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday, but a cold front will move through northern areas early next week and stall. Scattered showers are forecast across the Corn Belt near the front. Temperatures south of the front will increase throughout the week while it will be milder near and north of it.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): High temperatures and limited precipitation have become normal for this summer, causing stress to all crops.

After some brief relief with a system moving through on Thursday, it will remain hot into Monday. Another cold front will then move south into the region and stall to the south, bringing in some milder air and a couple of chances for rain. If the rain is widespread on Thursday, it will be highly beneficial. But if it remains more isolated, there will be more stress for reproductive to filling crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has stalled in the Central Plains and will bring some areas of showers through Thursday. But if it doesn't rain, it will remain hot. Cooler air will move through behind a system for Friday into the weekend, but will be brief with rising temperatures next week. A front should stall out in the Central Plains again next week, which may bring some milder temperatures and showers there while southern areas get hot and dry again.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has stalled in Missouri and will have potential to produce some showers on Wednesday. A system will move through the region Thursday through Saturday and stands the best chance at producing widespread showers and thunderstorms as well as bring in some milder air to the whole region. In addition, another cold front will move into the region and stall next week, which will be a factor in producing more areas of showers and bring some mild temperatures. Depending on where that front stalls, some areas will see improving conditions, but areas to the south of the front are likely to return to hotter and drier conditions that could be worse. Crop conditions have been falling the last couple of weeks and need more rain and milder temperatures to stabilize during the most important time for filling corn and soybeans heading into August.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front will stall in the region on Wednesday and produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Any rainfall will be welcomed in the region. If the rain is limited or isolated, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans. Temperatures are forecast to increase next week and may cause more stress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Though it has been hotter and drier over the last couple of weeks, that should have little impact on crop conditions as it should have allowed for enhanced growth and fill while most areas have had good soil moisture. Areas in the southwest may be too hot and dry though, where stress is most likely to show up. The region remains on the edge of the heat this week, with some sporadic showers and above-normal temperatures. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down for next week, but may not bring much precipitation with it.

BRAZIL (WHEAT): Scattered showers have been frequent over southern Brazil lately and continue to be fairly widespread this week and next, favorable for vegetative wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Despite many systems and fronts moving through lately, precipitation has been hard to come by. That continues over the next couple of weeks with several more chances for precipitation moving through.

Despite all the chances, showers are again expected to be limited, hitting only some lucky areas with needed rainfall. This could become a problem in another month or so if precipitation amounts don't pick up and wheat gets into its reproductive stages of growth.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Yet another heatwave is developing across Europe this week, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for better areas in the east. Any showers will be very limited through the middle of next week, when a front moving through should bring temperatures down and may come with some helpful rain.

BLACK SEA (CORN): Another system is moving through the Black Sea region through Thursday with more widespread showers and overall good conditions for the region. However, afterward, heat is forecast to fill into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress, especially across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though some showers may scrape across the south this week, drier conditions are becoming more common now with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks. A system moving into the west may be a break in the pattern next week, bringing through some scattered showers, but the drier pattern remains.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China into next week, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. However, temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions. Heat may be more of a problem with time if the showers end up disappointing.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Spotty showers southwest. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Isolated to scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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