Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat in the Plains with limited rainfall in the Corn Belt, overall good growing conditions in most of the Canadian Prairies, and another heat wave in Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS

It became hot in the western Midwest this weekend while it was milder in the east. Some areas of showers and thunderstorms developed on the edge of the heat throughout the weekend. A system will drag a front through the region on Monday into Tuesday, which will produce widespread chances for rainfall. However, not all areas will be hit with needed rain. Temperatures will be milder in the east, but still warmer in the west throughout the week. Above-normal temperatures may also spread to the east at times through next week, but only for a short period of time. Disturbances should be bringing scattered showers through the region throughout the week, but the ability to produce widespread heavy precipitation like the region needs is very low. Instead, there will be some definite winners and some unfortunate losers in this scenario. Several weeks of frequently above-normal temperatures with infrequent rainfall are producing areas of increasing dryness and drought as well as poor conditions for filling corn and pod-setting soybeans.

HOT WITH LIMITED RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

It became hot and dry in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend with most of the region up near or over 100 degrees. A front will bring some areas of showers and slightly milder temperatures this week as it generally stalls in the region. But if it doesn't rain, it will remain hot with worsening conditions for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans.

OVERALL HOT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

It became extremely hot in the Northern Plains over the weekend as temperatures climbed up to or over 100 degrees in many areas. Some showers went through South Dakota, but most areas stayed dry, as conditions continue to generally worsen as the summer wears on. It will remain hot most of the week, but chances for precipitation will still occur each day. Some milder air will move in behind a front early next week. But the lack of appreciable precipitation continues to bring concerns.

SOUTHWESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING STRESS ON EDGE OF HEAT

Above-normal temperatures were found across the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, but were hotter in the southwest. Showers fell over northern Alberta, but were limited to absent elsewhere. Though the conditions are not tremendously horrible for filling wheat and canola, it could be very stressful now in the southwest. The region will stay on the edge of the heat this week, with some sporadic showers with the above-normal temperatures. A system and front moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down, but may or may not bring much precipitation with it.

FRONT MOVING INTO DELTA AND STALLING THIS WEEK

Though a front remained stalled in the Delta over the weekend, very limited rain fell as temperatures rose. Another front will slip into the region on Wednesday and have a tendency to stall out in the region. That could produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any rainfall will be welcomed in most of the region. If the rain is limited or isolated, then conditions may worsen for cotton and soybeans.

ANOTHER HEAT WAVE FOR EUROPE

A system brought showers across parts of Europe on Sunday, continuing across the east on Monday. The system missed large areas in the west that have been under incredible heat stress this summer. Yet another heat wave will spread across the continent this week, bringing more damage to the west, and causing some stress for better areas in the east.

SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers went through far eastern Ukraine and western Russia over the weekend, favorable for reproductive to filling corn. Another system will move through Tuesday through Thursday with more widespread showers and overall good conditions for the region. However, afterward, heat is forecast to fill into the region going into the weekend and next week, which may cause some areas of stress.

SLOWLY DRYING OUT IN AUSTRALIA

It was dry in Australia over the weekend. Though some showers may scrape across the south this week, drier conditions are becoming more common now with the increasing El Nino. While crops are still largely vegetative, that is not an immediate concern. However, if this continues as forecast, we would see more drought stress developing as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in a few weeks.

MORE RAIN FALLING OVER CHINA, HEAT NOT CONCERNING RIGHT NOW

Scattered showers continue to fall across central and northeastern China, largely favorable for reproductive to filling corn and soybeans. That largely continues this week, but temperatures will be hotter when the rain isn't falling. Despite the heat, there is no immediate concern for corn or soybeans after the last several weeks of good conditions.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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