Heat Wave Stresses Plains Pastures

REDFIELD, Iowa (DTN) -- A heat wave across much of beef-cow country will continue to put pressure on pasture and range this week.

A significant shift in pasture and range conditions was seen last week in some Southwest and Plains states, according to the latest USDA Crop Progress report released on Monday. The most significant change was seen in New Mexico, which noted a 16-percentage-point decrease in good-to-excellent conditions and a 16-point increase in very-poor-to-poor conditions.

Other states with significant decreases in good-to-excellent pasture and range conditions included Wyoming with a 9-percentage-point decrease, Montana with a 7-point decrease, Texas with a 5-point decrease and Colorado with a 4-point decrease.

Several of the same states saw large increases in the percentage of their pastures and range moving into the very-poor-to-poor condition category. Wyoming saw an 18-point increase in this category, putting 64% of the state's pasture and range into the very-poor-to-poor category. Montana saw a 13-point move, putting 50% of its pasture and range in this category. And Colorado saw a 12-percentage-point increase in the very-poor-to-poor category, bringing it to 69%.

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick said the massive heat wave started in the Northern Plains this past weekend, with temperatures soaring to over 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Temperatures in a few locations in eastern Montana and the western Dakotas made it to over 110 degrees.

"The peak of the heat has already occurred in this area, but it will still be reaching up to or slightly over the century mark for most of the week," Baranick said. "That heat is spreading across the northern Midwest, though with temperatures more in the 90s."

Baranick added that some disagreement in the models exists on just how hot it will get across the Midwest and whether 90-degree temperatures will make it through most of Iowa, Missouri or areas farther east.

With the extended heat, some areas have seen enough moisture to show pasture improvements. Nebraska, which has had ongoing drought and wildfire recovery areas, has seen an extended amount of pasture and range in the very-poor-to-poor category. This week's report showed some improvements on both maps. Nebraska had a 3-point improvement in the percentage of pastures and range rated as good to excellent to reach 10%. On the very-poor-to-poor side, the state saw a 2-point improvement, bringing this category to 62%.

Baranick said the Southern Plains and Southeast will see scattered showers and thunderstorms across these states to help keep a lid on the high temperatures in most places, but this could also come with localized flooding due to the slow movement of these storms.

"Across the Central Plains, temperatures will be hot, but not extreme with a lot of areas in the low 90s and some that may reach up into the mid-90s," he said.

He said he expects the heat wave to end with a system moving through the Northern Plains later this week, with its cold front dragging southeast through the country this weekend into early next week.

"Models are unsure if it will produce much precipitation or not, but a heat wave usually ends with some good rainfall, so we'll see. If we don't get a lot of rain, the heat will do some significant damage to pastures and rangelands and accelerate the summer dry down of plant material," Baranick concluded.

If the cooldown and rainfall don't happen, a shift may also be seen on the U.S. Drought Monitor map, and those with crops will see some significant stress as well.

	Very poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
48 States	18	22	30	25	5
Previous week	15	21	31	27	6
Previous year	11	17	26	33	13

Jennifer Carrico can be reached at jennifer.carrico@dtn.com

Follow her on social platform X @JennCattleGal

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