Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Widespread areas of showers across the U.S. for the remainder of the week, significant heat in the north this weekend that could spread south next week, and heat and dryness in western Europe are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, HEAT NEXT WEEK?

A system continues to slowly move through the Midwest, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Some heat will return to the Upper Midwest this weekend into early next week, but models disagree on a front bringing relief. It is more likely than not that a front does come through, keeping the heat muted, but confidence remains low. Overall, this is still a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans in most of the region, though chances for heat should be monitored as corn starts to pollinate and soybeans are blooming.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A round of scattered showers will move through the Central Plains on Wednesday, some of which could be severe. More widespread showers are likely starting on Thursday as a front slips southward through the Southern Plains. Showers will likely continue across the far south into next week. Seasonably warm temperatures continue this week. We may see temperatures increasing this weekend into next week for a time. Though some issues with stress will show up, the recent and forecast rainfall should also help for crop growth.

HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND

Several disturbances moving through the Northern Plains will bring periods of showers over the next few days. Recent and forecast rainfall should continue to boost soil moisture and ease drought, but is also doing so in sporadic fashion. Temperatures remain milder over the next few days, but will increase significantly this weekend. The region is likely to be on the edge of heat next week, which may or may not cause stress depending on how hot it remains and how much precipitation can form on the edge of the heat.

MORE LIMITED SHOWERS AND SOME HEAT FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A couple of systems will move through the Canadian Prairies for the rest of this week and weekend with some areas of showers. Models have decreased the coverage and intensity of the showers and increased temperatures this weekend into next week, which would be preferred in most areas after the long-duration cool and wet weather.

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DELTA

A stalled system will continue showers in the Delta for the next few days. Another front moving through late this week and weekend will bring more and will tend to continue showers across the south next week. Overall, soil moisture continues to remain high across a lot of the region, favorable for developing cotton and soybeans.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN EUROPE

Hot and dry conditions in western Europe continue to be a very unfavorable situation for corn and other summer crops, particularly in France. Eastern areas of the continent will see more systems producing showers and bringing through some milder air for the next couple of days. The heat will tend to spread eastward this weekend. Doing so may get some showers to move into western countries going into next week. Even if these showers are widespread, which is not in the current forecast, the heat will have damaged a lot of the summer crops beyond repair.

OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Several systems are moving through the Black Sea region this week, but are favoring Ukraine with anything widespread or heavy. At least until Friday. Showers are likely to be more widespread this weekend into next week across western Russia. The recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. The increasing showers may have an impact on mature wheat awaiting harvest.

A LITTLE DRIER, BUT OVERALL FAVORABLE WEATHER IN AUSTRALIA

Recent weather has been very favorable for winter wheat and canola establishment in Australia so far this season. A system may get some showers in the west late this week and some isolated showers will move through the east as well. The building El Nino in the Pacific usually correlates with drier conditions across Australia. It has yet to do so, but may have a more significant impact later this year as wheat and canola go through reproductive and fill stages.

CHINA WATCHING SUPER TYPHOON BAVI THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace in northeast China and are now spreading to the North China Plain as well, favoring developing corn and soybeans. Super Typhoon Bavi is forecast to make landfall near Taiwan and then central China on Friday and Saturday. Massive amounts of water will flood into central China, which could be an issue for flooding of some crops and will need to be monitored. But overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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