DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...108 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW WED...23 AT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF KIRK, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SIOUX FALLS, SD 1.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West and a piece of another trough in central Canada that is moving over the top of a ridge in the East. The ridge will remain in place as additional pieces of the western trough continue eastward into the ridge through the next couple of days. This weekend, that trough will be very weak as it moves east, but strong enough to defeat the ridge and end the heatwave. However a new ridge will develop behind the trough in the West and continue next week. This ridge may have a tendency to build northeast into central Canada, making the pattern a bit complicated for next week.

The U.S. and European models have differences in how they treat the western ridge next week, significantly impacting both temperatures and precipitation. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS.

A system will be settling into the South early next week with scattered showers, but will also bring temperatures down across much of the country. Even with the "cooldown" temperatures will still feel a lot like summer next week.

A couple of systems may move through northern areas later next week, keeping somewhat active weather going. Models continue to disagree on where and when to put showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Disturbances will continue to move through the region through next week, continuing a somewhat active pattern through the region for the first half of July. Rainfall should help to ease drought, but may come with some periods of severe weather. Mild temperatures will have a tendency to rise next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A boundary continues to be stuck in the region. Temperatures continue to be excessive east of it while it will be a little cooler and drier to the west of it. It is also a point where showers have been and continue to develop over the next few days, but areas of substantial precipitation should be low in coverage. That will cause some stresses for some areas that continue to be drier, even after last week's rainfall. A system moving through this weekend should bring temperatures down several degrees, though it will still be very summer-like next week. The potential for precipitation next week is a bit uncertain with key model differences. Shower potential will be very hit-or-miss, leading to some areas of good weather and some areas of poor weather for developing corn and soybeans. Those with wheat yet to harvest still have some good opportunities to do so.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front to the west and across the north is a focal point for producing periods of showers and thunderstorms for the next couple of days, which will favor the north with pockets of heavy rain and severe weather, the areas that have been somewhat drier in June.

Temperatures remain extremely hot and humid and that will spark more isolated showers across the rest of the region the next couple of days. A weak system slowly moving through this weekend will be the end of the extreme heat, but it will still feel like summer next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will still move through at times into next week as well. Overall, this is a good pattern for developing corn and soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Moisture coming up from the Gulf started to produce isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and will get a boost from a system moving through this weekend into early next week. As long as some of this rain falls over the entire region as forecast, the conditions will not be too bad. However, if we do not see the forecast rainfall, then there could be some stress developing.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent precipitation has been heavy across the region over the last several weeks, causing some areas of flooding, especially in Manitoba. Disturbances will keep some showers going through next week, but at a reduced rate. The rainfall is overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though those wet areas could use a drier stretch.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front remains in the south as showers continue on Thursday. Some showers may redevelop there on Monday, but drier conditions should be more likely. That should help with the corn harvest. The recent rainfall across the south has been more beneficial for winter wheat establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Wheat could use some more moisture for establishment, but very little is forecast. A system moving through later next week stands a better chance at providing some needed rainfall, but models aren't sure about coverage or intensity.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Extreme heat has eased, and eastern areas have seen some beneficial rainfall this week. However, the heat will return to western areas over the next few days and continue through next week. This will particularly hurt corn and other summer crops in France, but should have impacts to adjacent areas as well. Meanwhile, eastern areas of the continent should have more luck with systems passing through, producing widespread rainfall, and more favorable temperatures through most of next week. But the heat may tend to spread eastward later next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A couple of systems will move through the region through next week, with models targeting Ukraine with the most precipitation.

Though in July that would normally be a poor situation for developing corn in western Russia, the recent wet and cool weather has limited growth and some warmer and drier conditions would be preferred in most areas. Drier weather this week has promoted drydown and harvest for wheat across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system is exiting the southeast after producing another round of decent showers. Models have become a little drier for next week, but soil moisture is still fairly good for a lot of areas. This year's El Nino has yet to bring the drier influence it typically does and winter wheat and canola are in largely good condition during establishment.

However, El Nino's influence usually increases over the next couple of months, which may have a more damaging impact yet this season when crops go through their reproductive stages.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in the northeast. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain have been promoting wheat and canola harvest, but showers will be increasing in July as the harvest winds down and summer crops continue to develop. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers far north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers west and north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal south and above normal north Friday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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