DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...116 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW WED...29 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...PUEBLO, CO 2.63 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Great Lakes with a little disturbance in the Central Plains. Both of these features will move east over the next couple of days. The pattern will change as a trough moves down from Alaska into the West and deepens on Friday into the weekend, while a ridge builds across the East behind the departing disturbances. The ridge will bottle up the trough for a few days next week, but the trough should pass over the top of the ridge later next week and may form a new trough on the East Coast. The ridge will then shift westward to take its place in the middle of the country with a new trough moving into Western Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will be spinning in the Canadian Prairies for early next week and its front will stretch from the eastern Dakotas down to west Texas, being mostly stationary. Occasional showers and thunderstorms will develop along that front through much of next week, especially toward the northern end, which should get some thunderstorm clusters into the Upper Midwest. It will be very hot east of this front, but the front will tend to wash out later next week as heat shifts more toward the Plains going into the holiday weekend. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue in almost random fashion at the end of the week during the shift.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Small disturbances will bring some areas of showers the next couple of days. But a stronger system will move in this weekend and produce more widespread heavy rain and potential severe weather. Some occasional showers should linger well into next week. While the rainfall is favorable, there could be some flooding and temperatures will remain below normal. That keeps stress low, but growth slow. Temperatures will increase later next week and may start to become excessive.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move through on Thursday into early Friday, spreading scattered showers and thunderstorms, some severe weather, and heavy rain. While a front will move into the region over the weekend, remain in the region through much of next week, and occasionally produce some areas of showers and thunderstorms, it will be largely hotter and drier next week. This is creating mixed conditions for developing summer crops while trending toward more favorable weather for the remaining winter wheat harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern continues to be active through the end of the week as a front produces showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and a system brings heavy rain to the south Friday and Saturday. The front to this system will lift northward on Sunday and temperatures will be increasing for next week. Some very hot and humid conditions are forecast for next week, which may actually be a good thing in most areas to increase growth and use up some of the excess moisture in some areas. Precipitation will still occur, and be more likely across the drier north, which may also be beneficial. As long as the heat breaks up in early July, this should be a favorable forecast.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A stalled front continues to produce scattered showers on Thursday while another will keep showers going across the north on Friday and Saturday. The front lifts north after that, creating hotter and drier conditions for next week. That may induce some stress if there are any dry areas out there. However, the heat may boost crop growth as well. Moisture moving up from the Gulf may produce some areas of showers later next week as well, limiting the potential stress.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers continue the next couple of days, boosting soil moisture in the Canadian Prairies. A larger storm system will move in over the weekend with more widespread heavy rain chances as the system spins in the region well into next week. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal for the rest of the month, causing growth to be slow.

Temperatures will increase after the system leaves in early July, promoting more development and using up some of the excess moisture. Despite the warm up, the showers are likely to continue in early July, overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of severe weather and flooding will be possible.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front continues scattered showers in south-central Brazil on Thursday. Another front will bring some showers to the south on Sunday through Tuesday and we may see some more showers later next week. Though some late-planted corn could benefit from the rain, much of the crop is heading toward maturity and will not. The rainfall will be more beneficial for winter wheat establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold temperatures have produced some frosts over the last couple of days, but should not damage the remaining mature corn and soybeans awaiting harvest, or the young vegetative winter wheat.

Another front will move through this weekend, but models are unsure about how widespread showers could be. Wheat could use some more moisture for establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Heat continues to spread across the continent, and has been extremely hot in France where temperatures have been eclipsing 100 degrees. This should have little effect on maturing wheat, but could damage summer crops significantly. Spotty showers will be possible in a few areas through the weekend, but relief from the heat will be tough to accomplish until next week. Even with a front bringing through some milder air toward the middle of next week, temperatures are forecast to remain above normal until late next week when more showers arrive. France may not receive much precipitation, however.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been frequent this week in Russia while hit has been quieter in Ukraine. That continues through the weekend. Heat is also building across Ukraine, but will have a hard time spreading to western Russia until next week. Some warmer temperatures would be preferred though for continued growth and development of both wheat and corn. A front moving through later next week should bring through more widespread precipitation and milder air, more favorable for both wheat and corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It has been drier this week, but a system will move through the West on Friday with scattered showers, and another will move through the northeast with showers this weekend. The western system may get showers into the southeast on Sunday or early next week, and another system may scrape through southern areas next week. That will cover most areas with showers over the next 7 days. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or two. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. The dry effect is more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have come at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in the northeast, which continues into early July as well. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal south and below normal north.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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